Warning

[Voortrekker]

Reading the Australian Financial Review on weekends (which is a wrap-up of the week's financial situation here in Australia), there are loads of articles about the Australian economy and how it's going generally.

The Australian economy is a pretty robust piece of machinery, but doesn't run in isolation to the rest of the world and wise folk take that into account, not only in emigrating, but in buying a house, for instance.

When some other parts of the world are looking a bit shaky, it's not unwise to assume it will have some effect on us in Australia.

Hopefully, Australia will weather any storm in the next couple of years, despite the United States, Britain and New Zealand starting to slow right down economically.

Since I don't have a crystal ball and can't forecast the future I'd be playing the game conservatively and covering myself.

It's as simple as that!

Bob, sometimes it pays to be conservative However robust the Australian economy is, no country is an island in today's global economy. And that is what I tried to say in my post earlier.

Last night on BBC they had something about worries re China's economy. Last week it was India. There are a few clouds on the horizon. We are all hoping that they will simply blow away, but we don't know for sure.

Imo, I can't see how anyone can argue with the logic of your latest post, but hey, at the end of the day, people have to make their own decisions based on their own circumstances.

On the SACanada board their is someone right now who is in this boat. Their US temporary visa is expiring, they are desperate to stay on, but all options seem to have run out.

Then again, if one doesn't have a family to worry about, and your only choice was a temporary visa, well, sometimes a risk is worth taking. I've had a temporary myself in the USA, long ago.

Meanwhile, I have just been browsing the Sydney Morning Herald and the Canberra Times for today (5 Aug), and there is a bit of doom and gloom in the air. Selected quotes from today's papers:

"Meanwhile, one of the economy's pillars - a strong job market - is looking wobbly. The appetite among employers to hire staff is at its lowest since the 1991 recession, a survey of 400 executives by Dun and Bradstreet released today has found. Roughly a quarter of executives expect to have fewer staff in the coming three months than they did a year ago. Just one in 10 intend to hire more. An ANZ survey of recruitment advertising has recorded three consecutive months of decline for the first time since 2001.", and

"A survey also shows job prospects are deteriorating as businesses wind back their hiring intentions, which could see the unemployment rate spike towards 5 per cent in coming months. The ANZ newspaper and internet job ads series fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.3 per cent in July."

It doesn't seem very high, but imo it is worth it to take note.

[Bob]

You can read into this however you like.

This is today's news . . . . Wednesday 5th August 2008

http://www.bigpond.com/news/business/conte...805/2324219.asp

You lot may not like the advice that I give at times, but if it saves just one South African from having to go back, by planning accordingly, then I will have done my bit.

As you can read, there are some definite dark clouds on the Australian economic front according to some, an Associate Professor of Economics in the University of Western Sydney no less, and anyone saying that it's going to be bright sunshine in the near future is giving you guys a bum steer!

I've lived thro recessions in Australia . . . . the 1970s recession and the 80s recession . . . I've know what it was like to look for work when there is over 10% unemployed in Australia.

I've known what it was like to have 3 kids to have to feed and clothe in tough times.

I hope you'll excuse me for not responding to this topic any longer . . . . . enough said from my part. There are heaps of other more interesting topics from you guys to read up and advise on regarding Australia and its lifestyle.

Time will tell if I'm right, or wrong.

Edited August 5, 2008 by Bob

[AndreaL]

I have been following this topic with interest and as a 457 holder.

Bob's advice is sensible, where possible try and secure a p.r visa, however the 457 is not called the "try before you buy" visa for nothing.

Many sponsoring companies are only willing to offer temporary visa's for any number of reasons, primarily because if a company needs skilled workers now, the attraction of the 457 is that you get your skilled worker quicker, you can have that worker in 8 weeks as opposed to anywhere between 4 and 15 months depending on the type of p.r visa.

On a 457 visa you can only work for the sponsoring company, they want to get their money's worth from you, given that possibly 3 out of 4 workers who arrive in Australia on a 457 with a particular company then go on to gain p.r either independently or company sponsored and leave the original company for greener pastures, means that sponsors are less inclined to talk p.r with you or may attempt to tie you into an agreement, i.e " we will sponsor your ENS p.r if you sign this contract agreeing to stay with us for 3 years"

You can look at the other side of the coin too, because of the potential to exploit 457 workers and the negative press this visa class has enjoyed a 457 integrity review is currently underway, this will result in tighter regulations regarding the 457 and will ultimately offer employees greater levels of protection and employers greater levels of scrutiny.

As things stand at present, a sponsoring company has to satisfy numerous criteria before they can use 457 labour, they have to prove they have tried to source those skills within the Australian workforce, they have to provide proof of training registers, Australian to migrant workforce ratio's etc.

It does seem we are entering a trough, where it will go is anyones guess, I have no knowledge of economics or world finance and so can only base my decisions on the information offered to me.

Keep applying to come to Australia by whichever opportunities are afforded to you, if a 457 is offered, take it, better you are here on a temporary visa but able to better assess future options with regard to employment choices and permanent visa categories than sitting in RSA wondering if you might have missed the boat.

For another viewpoint read the following article, just goes to show that nothing is ever black or white, but grey and with varying shades of politics involved.

Why we won't have a real recession

Australia has always encouraged migration to simply get the population numbers up and my gut tells me that the day the immigration minister announces a cut in migration numbers( both temporary and permanent) is the day to start to panic, if there are 190 000 migrants needed in the next year, I would suspect that even if businesses fail and cut jobs, unemployment increases and we go through tougher times, a percentage of those migrants will still be needed.

A bank manager friend of mine in Perth tells me that during the 80's she would have up to a dozen homeowners a day simply handing the keys of their homes back to her as they could not afford the repayments, Australia recovered from that recession and honestly if we are entering a world recession, I think that Australia stands to ride that downturn better than many other countries, including RSA and my birthplace the U.K.

Rudd has a lot to prove and to close the doors to migrants( temporary or permanent) would potentially be a case of shooting oneself in the foot.

[JanCPT]

Instead of attacking Bob, why don't you guys take on Associate Professor Steve Keen from the University of Western Sydney, or Business editor Peter Ryan, or Shane Wright Economics Editor .... & .. & ...&

And, while you do that, be sure to give your credentials & authority on the Australian economy .... so that we can make an assesment of the quality of the opinion that you are giving

What Bob says makes good sense & the fact that he has been able to retire at a young age indicates that he has a good head on his shoulders & we should, at least, consider his opinion.

Every one of the posts that has tried to counter his opinion, have, seemingly, been laymen trying to analyse economic indicators, with some using micro events in support.

As much as what I don't believe that economists have crystal balls, it would be reckless for any lay person to disregard their warnings of a possible recession stage coming up.

& the effect of a recession, on Aussie immigration policy, is a matter of simple logic.

Cheers

Jan

Edited August 5, 2008 by JanCPT

[WAM]

Go for it - I'll gladly claim the credit if it turns out well for you. Just remember that us financial people tend to be much better at explaining the past than at predicting the future.

Seriously though, I won't buy property until I've lived in Aus for a quite a while, regardless of where property prices seem to be going at the moment. With property, I believe that you need to be there, sniff the air, talk to the people, see the lay of the land, put your ear on the ground etc etc. That's just me, and I'm not saying it's the best way to go. Just be sensible, and remember that you're entering a whole new world and that you can (as an immigrant starting over, unless you're already rich!) hardly afford to make an expensive mistake with the capital that you've brought with you...

Thanks JD I think that's good advice.

But am still not sure whether to reduce my property price by 15% and hopefully make a quicker sale and have less money when I get there. At least then I will know what I have got and what I can do with it. I think it is like russian roulette renting out your property here and not knowing what the R is going to do. I heard of someone the other day who rented their property out and is still trying (after a couple of months on the other side of the world) to get their rental money.

I for one really appreciate your advice, you always seem to go the extra mile for everybody.

Thanks again,

WAM

[Riekie]

WOW have read through this entire post and can see it is indeed a hot topic.Both sides of the debate have their valid points I guess Have not visited this forum for a while as I was insulted for far less than this and a PM sent to me suggesting I leave.It inspires me however that this heated debate has been allowed to continue because immigration is a hot topic and should be vented as such (perhaps the personal attacks were a tad overdone)none the less maybe the powers that be have realised a genuine need to allow ppl to have an opinion at last instead of the multitude of quote "arsewipes"and yes men around.

Do not know Bob so would not personally wish to insult him intentionally,however,I find it a bit odd that someone in one breath could "rub ones nose" in the fact that he is a retiree at 56?and travels extensively,would actually then post a doom and gloom scaremongering post(albeit founded/unfounded) to his SA "friends".His interest seems a bit warped to me IMHO.

A month ago this would have been in the cooler long before now so what has changed mods?

And the relevance of this to the current topic is?.....

Well...if the mods have had a change of heart i wonder if i could get my PM functions back?

Stop hijacking this topic for your own personal agenda.

OOOO hellooo Nats,fancy meeting you here.Yes come on Mods show some fairness here heh

Stop hijacking this topic for your own personal agenda.

[AndreaL]

Instead of attacking Bob, why don't you guys take on Associate Professor Steve Keen from the University of Western Sydney, or Business editor Peter Ryan, or Shane Wright Economics Editor .... & .. & ...&

And, while you do that, be sure to give your credentials & authority on the Australian economy .... so that we can make an assesment of the quality of the opinion that you are giving

What Bob says makes good sense & the fact that he has been able to retire at a young age indicates that he has a good head on his shoulders & we should, at least, consider his opinion.

Every one of the posts that has tried to counter his opinion, have, seemingly, been laymen trying to analyse economic indicators, with some using micro events in support.

As much as what I don't believe that economists have crystal balls, it would be reckless for any lay person to disregard their warnings of a possible recession stage coming up.

& the effect of a recession, on Aussie immigration policy, is a matter of simple logic.

Cheers

Jan

I really hope you are not suggesting that my post is an attack on Bob?( I certainly would hate to be lumped with people who take pleasure in insulting and judging fellow forumites)

As I said in my post I am merely offering my opinion as a lay person, Bob's advice is sensible and I have great respect for the advice and wisdom he generously shares with everyone , unfortunately not everyone can migrate independently for many reasons and have to take the means offered.

I as a lay person and member of this forum have the same right as any other to share my thoughts and opinion, be they right or wrong.

Regards

Andrea L

[JanCPT]

I really hope you are not suggesting that my post is an attack on Bob

I don't think so .... were you attacking him??

I didn't intend the post to be direct towards any single person, but at those guys who seem to think that it is appropriate to get in someones face, when they don't agree with him.

Seems to be a bit of a trend to do that on this topic

Also that, as much as what I would like to hear opposing views, I'd also like to have the basis of those opinions. in order for me to finalise plans for my own personal circumstances.

As it is, I think that Bob may be right & if Aus is going into recession, we shouldn't think that the SA economy is going to stand still - right now I'm selling my house & considering whether I should slash the price, in order to get it sold before our market gets hit any harder.

Cheers

Jan

[JDJoburg]

Thanks JD I think that's good advice.

But am still not sure whether to reduce my property price by 15% and hopefully make a quicker sale and have less money when I get there. At least then I will know what I have got and what I can do with it. I think it is like russian roulette renting out your property here and not knowing what the R is going to do. I heard of someone the other day who rented their property out and is still trying (after a couple of months on the other side of the world) to get their rental money.

I for one really appreciate your advice, you always seem to go the extra mile for everybody.

Thanks again,

WAM

Only a pleasure WAM.

If you drop your price, will you still be making a real (inflation adjusted) profit? If so, why gamble - take your money and go. As I've said before, we are not likely to see the kind of boom in property values that we've become accustomed to up to 2007, for the next couple of years. So, it's one thing hanging on to try and show an inflation-beating return, but something else to hang on in anticipation of "losing out" when the next property bonanza arrives (not referring to you specifically WAM!). I'm not saying it won't, but you need to ask yourself if it's worth the risk if you can get out now and show a decent return in any case. I reckon it is just prudent to be a little conservative when you're in the middle of moving countries, especially in the volatile global economic environment that we're experiencing at the moment.

[Riekie]

I really hope you are not suggesting that my post is an attack on Bob

Nope, that would definitely not have been aimed at you. Nothing wrong with your post or your opinion.

[AndreaL]

Nope, that would definitely not have been aimed at you. Nothing wrong with your post or your opinion.

Thanks Riekie, I must admit that there are topics in the past I would have liked to respond to but am not up for the lambasting that sometimes occurs, hence I may have been a bit hypersensitive.

I, like many spend a long time considering my posts and if they would offend anyone and sometimes it is hard to get your meaning across yet remain politically correct.

Andrea L

[Biltongboer]

It amazes me how a simple topic can get totally out of hand.

Poor Bob, and all he does is stick to his topic, never attacks anyone, and just states his opinion. Beautiful.

Jolly good show, old chap!

[JanCPT]

Oops, seems I posted, after I decided to PM

In a nutshell, my post wasn't directed at Andrea

Cheers

jan

Edited August 5, 2008 by JanCPT

[SHIRLS]

You don't know him personally, and wouldn't want to insult him intentionally, yet you're happy to say that he's rubbing your nose in something and imply that he has dodgy motives. Wow, he's a retiree at 56, what a show-off.

I wonder what your post would've looked like if you did intend to insult him.

Now, I don't mean to insult you (since I don't know you personally) but do you know the meaning of "Play the ball, not the man"? That draconian rule that those fascist mods are always harping on about?

Thanks for playing!

You missed the point of my post entirely and this attitude of yours is just so very typical of the majority(sorry to generalise for those that do not fall into this category) of ppl posting here.I am as entitled to an opinion as you as I previosly stated if you cared to read properly.You just seem like someone who wants to cause trouble so rather keep your nastiness to yourself why don't you.It was not you whom I attacked and I am quite sure that if Bob felt strongly enought to defend himself then he will do so in due course.

For your information,it has been highlighted in the past that we are to curb our need to brag which is why I made the chirp...what need is there to let everyone know that you are whatever age at retirement..It was an observation from a previous post of his and with reference to that,was where my chirp came in.SO....IMHO means just that IN MY HUMBLE OPINION

[AandJ]

[JanCPT]

Still too serious....

Hey andre

Thanks for trying to decrease the pressure with some cornies, but I don't think the problem lies with the seriousness of the topic, but with the seriousness of the unrelated side issues.

Things go on like this & people are afraid to post their opinion, cause they don't want to get involved in the side issue .....

These hijackers either post their cr@p because they don't have anything relevant to add to the topic at hand, or because they feel that their issues take precedent over those of the person who originnaly posted the topic.

Why they don't start their own topics, God alone, in all his wisdom, knows

Can we get back to the topic at hand, or do we abandon ship because of excessive interference?

Cheers

Jan

PS Mods - At last I understand the dilemma you face ......

[JimmyC]

At the end of the day it boils down to one thing.Respect. Everyone is entitled to his / her own opinion - no doubt about that. It's all in the way in which you present your case / "carrry yourself". The initial argument was about preacher and the way in which he responded to Bob. Nobody has a problem with the fact that he differs from Bob. The issue was the unecessary aggression involved in his post. People reprimanded (correct word??) him for that as it was a bit uncalled for.

[AandJ]

Well summed up Jimmy.

[JanCPT]

do you think that there is any chance of reviving the origanl topic .... or do you think it's dead

[JimmyC]

I hope that we can come back to the original topic as well. Maybe we should start a new topic called "Conducting one's self and the general rules of engagement" or something like that.

If I hijacked this post in any way - I apologize.

Jimmy

[JanCPT]

I hope that we can come back to the original topic as well. Maybe we should start a new topic called "Conducting one's self and the general rules of engagement" or something like that.

If I hijacked this post in any way - I apologize.

Jimmy

The topic seems to be in a strangle hold at the moment & the only way that it can cme to life is if someone posts a value add / topic appropraite comment & the rest of us keep our testosterone in our pants

Time will tell .... but for those of you who wanted to add something construstive & lost faith with the bitching & moaning .... please do speak up, cause I think that this is one of the more important topics, cause it discusses matters which could have quite a serious effect the decision making process of prospective immigrants to Aus

Cheers

jan

Edited August 5, 2008 by JanCPT

[JDJoburg]

You missed the point of my post entirely and this attitude of yours is just so very typical of the majority(sorry to generalise for those that do not fall into this category) of ppl posting here.I am as entitled to an opinion as you as I previosly stated if you cared to read properly.You just seem like someone who wants to cause trouble so rather keep your nastiness to yourself why don't you.It was not you whom I attacked and I am quite sure that if Bob felt strongly enought to defend himself then he will do so in due course.

For your information,it has been highlighted in the past that we are to curb our need to brag which is why I made the chirp...what need is there to let everyone know that you are whatever age at retirement..It was an observation from a previous post of his and with reference to that,was where my chirp came in.SO....IMHO means just that IN MY HUMBLE OPINION

No Shirls, I actually don't miss very much and I spend much more time giving advice than causing trouble on this forum. I think what you miss is that most of us "arse-wipes and yes-men" as you call us can grasp that "having your own opinion" doesn't mean that you have to insult, swear or use crass language. We all have different opinions about the topic of discussion, no-one is asking anyone to agree. What we are asking is for you to argue the topic instead of attacking the writer, we're not demanding that you have to agree with anyone. Is that really so difficult to understand?

Edited August 5, 2008 by JDJoburg

[JanCPT]

and a sure winner, in order to keep the cr@p flowing, is to respond to their sh1t, because they see nothing wrong with what they are doing & nothing that you reason with will ever convince them otherwise

I guess this one is dead after all

Cheers

Jan

[JDJoburg]

do you think that there is any chance of reviving the origanl topic .... or do you think it's dead

Jan, I think perhaps this topic has run its course (I'm sorry for being in the sideshow myself)

There can be little doubt that the Australian economy is slowing down. That is not a problem in itself, and definitely not a reason NOT to emigrate (and not once did Bob-the-evil-Australian tell us not to emigrate, by the way ) but I think this thread is a timely reminder that we should all endeavour to obtain permanent residence as soon as possible, if we want to make Australia our home. This is always a valid point, it's just more pertinent when there's a risk of stagnating economic growth.

Perhaps the reason for all the heated arguments is simply that Bob's message touched a raw nerve with all of us - we're all facing enormous uncertainty (and yes, fear) and this topic just reminded us that there is so much that can go wrong. So maybe we should move on from this topic now, it's been valuable but ultimately it is concerned with things that we cannot control. What I'm saying is, even if the Aussie economy was booming right now, it can all turn ugly by the following year, just as it can in South Africa. It shouldn't change our decision to go, but we should keep in mind that only PR can offer ultimate peace of mind.

[JDJoburg]

and a sure winner, in order to keep the cr@p flowing, is to respond to their sh1t, because they see nothing wrong with what they are doing & nothing that you reason with will ever convince them otherwise

I guess this one is dead after all

Cheers

Jan

You're right of course Jan. Maybe one day, when I'm grown up, I'll be a gentleman like Bob, who clearly knows the value of non-reaction.

Good night.

Edited August 5, 2008 by JDJoburg