Warning

[Bob]

I'm posting this warning on the website to all prospective South Africans who are thinking of making Australia their home.

Make sure you don't get stuck with a temporary work visa . . . . usually called a 457 . . . . because there are some really worrying signs on the horizon for Australia's economy in the near to medium term.

Applying for a permanent visa takes longer because checks have to be more stringent. With a temp visa, you can always be sent back . . . . end of any problem from Australia's point of view.

However, although it may be quicker and easier to get into Australia on a temporary visa, you must be here for a certain period before you're able to apply for Permanency and this all takes time.

Time is what you don't have.

If the economy takes a king hit, which some analysts are now forecasting, then the wheels of Australian industry will grind to a halt or go very slowly.

Australia simply won't need the thousands of migrants needed to keep the wheels turning.

With an inevitable rise in unemployment among the Australia workforce, many Aussies will be wondering what migrants are doing at jobs that they could be doing. They are voters. The government listens to voters . . . . not to temporary workers in Australia.

Thousands of temporary workers could easily find themselves flying back home, away from Australia, depending on the severity of any economic downturn.

O.K. . . . . . I've stated what some pundits are now saying in the news, here in Australia, so be smart and apply for a permanent visa, unless you only want to be here in Australia temporarily.

[Jill]

Thanks Bob.

That is a lot of food for thought.

bye for now Jill

[Springbok]

With an inevitable rise in unemployment among the Australia workforce, many Aussies will be wondering what migrants are doing at jobs that they could be doing. They are voters. The government listens to voters . . . . not to temporary workers in Australia.

Not even permanent residents can vote, only citizens.

[Nilo]

I think...... this is just a little down and that it's normal in the scheme of things (all things) to have downs so that there can be ups again. Downs are not neccessarily bad!! Downs are good!!

At the moment the whole world is in a down so what would make Australia any different?

Don't worry about just being on a 457 temp visa, do your job to the BEST of your ability and even better!! You will not be chucked out as the reason for you getting the visa is because you have the skills that no one or to litttle people have. Australia is a growing country, we are here to help build!! However don't procrastinate in applying for your Permanent Residency Visa.

As you can see I'm NOT a doom and gloom person!! Have never been and will never be!!! So there you go people work and build and learn, be a giver and not a taker, and all will be well.

God will NOT send us on this road and forsake us!!

[Enrica]

I agree 100 % with Bob, if you look at whats happening in the US it does not bode good for Australia. As they say when American sneezes Australia get the cold.

Anyone that was here 10 years ago know that even with PR , there were no jobs to be had.And then sponsorships where non exsistant. Even when you applied for a position as a vegatable packer you had to have Aussie experience!!!

[wendy]

I for one do not agree. In the trades industry Australia can't train people fast enough for the jobs they have got and there is a generation gap. Meaning that when the old ones retire there would not be enough new young ones in the field to replace them.

If you are here on a 457 you should ask your employer to sponser for PR as soon as you get here. Have it written in your contract that after 6 months you want a PR sponsership. If you do a good job they will keep you. I know of a few people who have done this and recieved the PR in their first year of being on a 457.

If they did not need us why would they have a "skills te kort lys"?

Edited August 1, 2008 by wendy

[Sam]

I've been saying for years that if you have a choice, go for the PR visa but my arguments does not seem make an impression on anyone. The advantages of a temp visa seems to be a greater temptation than waiting and doing all the hard work for PR, which you have to do anyway when you eventually apply for it. I think your argument is very valid in todays terms, Bob. If economic depression suddenly kicks in there is nothing stopping companies from not wanting to commit. I mean, that happens anyway even in everyday terms. Please note, this is not scare-mongering, just a little good advice for those who want to migrate.

Edited August 1, 2008 by Sam

[Enrica]

Wendy,

I think Bob is refering to what can/will happen months down the line. yes, there is a skills shortage list, but when the chips are down...who exactly do you think will get the jobs? people who are here on a "temporary Visa" or those that are here on a Permanent Visa and even then an Australian as opposed to a South African?

The Governement will have duty to its Citizens, not to some worker on a temprary visa !!!! The elctorate will make absolutly sure of that.

There is absolutly no way that an Aussie will stand by and watch another Aussie sit with out a job, when other overseas workers are being brought in to work.

It cannot happen.

The economy is like a huge oil tanker, even when you switch the engine off, that tanker can cruise for many many kilometers before coming to a stand still.

Already with the gas shortage in WA , certain companies have started laying off some of there staff and not renewing contracts..............

As I stated in my earlier post, I arrived here in 2000 and the economy was in a major down turn, there were no sponsored visas ....simple because there jobs were not easy to come by. Secondly I saw highly skill Saffers sitting at home for 8 months or longer try to get a job/ any job.

Eventually Electrical Enginners/ Skilled Tradies and Lawyers/Mining Enginners/ Psygoligist were resorting to become courier drive/ doing Night fill....anything to earn a dollar and support their family.

Just remember that even if you have a permanent residents visa, that does not guarentee you a job

So, what I think that Bob is saying if be prepared for things to change...they wont change tommorrow but be prepared.................

[Bob]

Australians will invariably look after their own first.

I know how Aussies think and what makes them tick.

If some bloke runs a company here in Australia and his brother-in-law or best mate, etc. is laid off, that company manager will almost certainly try to get his brother-in-law / cousin / uncle / dad / school mate, etc. a job before anyone else.

If you're temporarily here on a work permit, try asking for permanent residency at a particular job when the boss has his brother-in-law or best mate out of work and can do the job.

I've heard of people having "blue" eyes, but in this instance your eyes are going to have to be exceptionally "blue"

Not all industries will suffer to the same extent, some being shielded by good export income, etc. but many Australian companies are facing a near to medium term future without too many bright clouds on the horizon.

So . . . . you'd be wise to secure a permanent visa as soon as possible while there are still good prospects.

Once you're here permanently, it doesn't matter if you have to fill grocery shelves. Times will come good again and, in the meantime, you can still dream and hope and plan.

You can't do that if you are likely to be going back.

[Hennie-Pennie]

Hi All

I think it is important to know that the windowof opportunity to come into australia will not always be open. The window may be closing faster than we hoped. What is important is to get here ASAP. If you can get into the coutry without a 457 DO IT.If it is the only way to get in then use it. I am on a 457 and it is not ideal. We are lucky. We are applying on my husbands skills for independent PR as well. If you are still in limbo about migration, and you are still thinking in 2 years time ,or when the kids are in high school etc...I think it is wise to re-asses your plans. Get in while you still can.

For those already here, at least you can try and open the door from this side for your family and friends. They still have a better change of getting in with someone they know on this side.

Edited August 1, 2008 by Hennie-Pennie

[eugene roodt]

The economy might be slowing down but I think too many people are trying to make it worse than it is. The govt had a 20 billion dollar surplus the last tax year, medicare still runs and so does a lot of other benefits. Yes it is not as good as it was 3 or so years ago but it is definitely not close to collapsing.

[bluegill]

Thanks Bob. Do you have any websites we can have a look at where the analysts are forecasting this slump?

[bernz777]

My 2c worth

As i have experienced, that all countries do slump, but it normal there is no way any country can have 5-10% growth every year. if you take a look at inflation, interest rates all the data pointing to a country that shows its strenght/ weakness ( south africa). Australia is doing well, the main focus of Aus business is gearing to the commodity sector.

"Australia is currently the world’s 14th largest economy by nominal GDP, with a size of $889 billion in 2007. Following a recession in the 1980s Australia had enjoyed 16 years of uninterrupted growth, aided by growing demand for commodities and robust government policies. GDP long term growth has averaged 4.4%, with 3.3% average between 2003 and 2007, but is expected to drop to the 2% - 3% range over the next five years"

Still any country that can sustain an average growth between 2-3% is in a real good position.

Not all countries are reliable on USA ( whose economy is in a major slump look at all of their banks that are closing.

"While traditionally tied to Europe and US, Australia is now dependent on Asia for its economic well-being. In particular it partners with Japan for capital financing, particularly in the mining industry, and with China as its primary export partner."

well my opinion is not to assume the worst. And i still cant wait to get over there on a 457 visa and enjoy a safe life.

[Wodwik]

To Bob and All

It's true that the world economies are going through a rough cycle and that we all watch the US like the proverbial 'Bambi in headlights', but remember this: The US has a budget deficit that is expected to reach $600bn by the time Bush thankfully departs. In contrast the Aus economy has a budget surplus of A$31bn. You also have what the rest of the world (China/India) wants: resources. This is not going away, although it might slow down somewhat.

There are also stock traders who need these big cycles where they buy 'at the bottom'. They fuel the sentiment that we are heading into recession so they walk away with huge profits when things improve. Try to get a balanced view if possible.

Aus is in a difficult position because its currency will improve, and might make it un-competitive in world markets. (Like Japan a decade or two ago).

Oh, and on a social front I can't see the liberal politicians forcing TR visa holders to leave. But that doesn't mean one shouldn't apply for PR ASAP.

[saffer2]

While the government may not force 457 visa holders to leave, it can restrict the program.

However, in terms of the likelihood of redundancy, your chances as a 457 holder are higher than an Australian. On a 457 you have 28 days to find work or be repatriated to your country of origin - the benefit of PR is that you will not have to find a new sponsor and you have no restriction on how long you will need to find a job.

I think Bob's advise is worth considering.

[Smartie]

Hi, following up on what BOB warned of....

Why The Slowdown Is Happening http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080731/27/1uvuw.html

[Clueless]

I will be on a sponsored 457 visa in Aus. The company I will be working for is in the oil and gas industry and according to the MD they are expecting the industry to boom. They are based in Rural Australia and not many people are prepared to work / live in these areas. So I am not too concerned at this stage

[polly]

I don't think you have to be in Aus for a certain time on a 457 before applying for a permanent visa. We are applying immediately and we have been here for two weeks.

[AReyeP]

If you ask me I wouldn't worry too much. You could get hit by a bus tomorrow too after all. If you're moving to Aus, then think like an Aussie and say "don't worry, she'll be right". And odds are they will be!

[Alida]

We feel that even in this, our lives are in our GOD's hands. If He directs us down under, we will go. I'd rather face some tough financial times, than fear for our lives and the safety and future of my children. You can make do in tough times, our ancestors did it over and over again. But when your life is at stake, you do something about it.

[customeyes]

I think it all depends on where in Australia you are going. In WA, the economic boom is tipped to last at least another ten years due to the resources demand from China. The economy here is booming in the resources industries. The Australian government will still need 457 sponsored workers for many years to come. And while I agree that a permanent visa is always the best option, there are a great many advantages to coming on a 457 as well. Remember, not everyone CAN convert their 457 to PR immediately. For some people, working on a 457 in Australia for 2 years is the only way that they will ever get PR. I really don't think that people from South Africa need to be concerned about coming on 457s. Companies are still actively recruiting workers from overseas and that is not going to change overnight. They have just opened new 'Centres of Excellence' to process 457 applications due to the increased demand. There is no sign of it slowing down just yet. Besides, even if the Australian economy slows down dramatically in the next few years, it is still going to be in better shape than the South African economy! I know where I'd rather be!

[celeste]

Thanks for the informative post Bob. It's always good to make decisions with eyes wide open but as you say this will probably take a while slow down.

[Preacher]

I'm posting this warning on the website to all prospective South Africans who are thinking of making Australia their home.

Make sure you don't get stuck with a temporary work visa . . . . usually called a 457 . . . . because there are some really worrying signs on the horizon for Australia's economy in the near to medium term.

Applying for a permanent visa takes longer because checks have to be more stringent. With a temp visa, you can always be sent back . . . . end of any problem from Australia's point of view.

However, although it may be quicker and easier to get into Australia on a temporary visa, you must be here for a certain period before you're able to apply for Permanency and this all takes time.

Time is what you don't have.

If the economy takes a king hit, which some analysts are now forecasting, then the wheels of Australian industry will grind to a halt or go very slowly.

Australia simply won't need the thousands of migrants needed to keep the wheels turning.

With an inevitable rise in unemployment among the Australia workforce, many Aussies will be wondering what migrants are doing at jobs that they could be doing. They are voters. The government listens to voters . . . . not to temporary workers in Australia.

Thousands of temporary workers could easily find themselves flying back home, away from Australia, depending on the severity of any economic downturn.

O.K. . . . . . I've stated what some pundits are now saying in the news, here in Australia, so be smart and apply for a permanent visa, unless you only want to be here in Australia temporarily.

What an absolute pile of steaming garbage. Where the bloody hell do you get your information from? WHere the bloody hell do you get off spreading nonsense like this? What do you gain from convincing people not to come here? Sorry mods for the aggression, but this is out of line. Way out of line.

Australia has had to raise interest rates for two reasons. The first is that the economy is growing quicker then the labour pool. The other was because consumers had overspent. Both of them are positive reasons to increase rates. The global credit crunch has hit their banking sector a bit Ill agree. They wrote off huge sums. Is the economy in a state of down turn? No ways.

Think about it for a second. They are increasing interest rates because of a shortage of labour. They want the economy to slow BECAUSE THERE ARE TOO MANY JOBS. This pushes up the cost of labour which causes inflation. This a welfare country, where people who are unemployed live off state support. There should be no unemployment in Aus. There is no real unemployment. There are extreme skills shortages here. For gods sakes, McDonalds and Hungry Jacks are offering skilled visas now. Think Im bullshitting?

Here is the original story: http://www.thoughtleader.co.za/sarahbritte...o-flip-burgers/

Now why would they start sending people home when they are desperate for them? People think there is a skill sshortage in SA? Wait to you see what Australias is like. South africa has a shortage that is problematic. Australia went past severe into legendary 5 years ago

The amount of foreign investment pouring into Australia is frighting. The chinese are investing in undeveloped mines all over the show. Rio Tinto and BHP have managed to up their prices to such a degree that Western Australias budget forecasts doubled overnight. Tax income from the deals is so high the government is complaining it does not know what to do with the money. Im dead serious

In WA, they have to build a second port because Freemantle has backlogs so severe they cant cope with the amount of goods coming in and out of this country.

Of course they feel the pinch when the world economy does. As america slows, so will China. When China slows, so will Australia. Does not change the fact that an American recession is not going to destabalise the world like it would of 10 years ago. Those days are over.

Please folks, do yourself a favour. Dont believe idiots like Bob who seem to have some sort of agenda other then valuable unbiased information. I swear, where they come up with crap Ill just never know

Edited August 2, 2008 by Preacher

[Biltongboer]

Yikes.

I do agree a bit with your statement and what you're trying to say, but, wow, what a way to say it.

Maybe you should change your name to Screamer, in stead of Preacher.

[Preacher]

Ag ja I get really pissed off with these okes sometimes biltong. Trying to convince people who fear for their safety to stay in a place they dont want to by posting . He is playing games with peoples lives. Why would you do such a thing?

Bottom line, Aus may slow down with the world slowing down. But to tell people they will be sent home and that things are on the verge of a standstill? What a tosser. Its one thing to try and give a balanced perspective. Its another thing altogether trying to influence people through outright lies and deception.

Either its a SOuth African trying to convince himself that staying there is the way to go because he does not have the balls to leave OR he is a South African this side who cant see whats happening here. My God.