Is Australia still the lucky country?

[aquagirl]

I know of two senior mining guys (mine engineers) who have been out of work in WA for over a year. One is now looking outside the industry (he's been in mining all his life in SA, UAE and Oz) and the other is working FIFO (Africa) whilst his family lives in Perth. Pretty tough out there....

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/wa/a/24934385/geologists-out-of-work/

I've noticed that they keep covering it up. The companies don't want their share holders to panic. We've known for more than a year that geologists are out of work. And that they have stopped most exporation work in WA. So down the track things will be bleak - not sure of the timeline.

And don't get me started on the property bubble.

Once the interest rates go up those poor first time homebuyers who had no idea of how high interest rates can go will feel the strain!

Edited September 13, 2014 by aquagirl

[aquagirl]

The media loves stories of large job cuts. Think about it, if all the job cuts that we've heard about over the past few years have not been replaced with other jobs, we would have nobody left working! Companies constantly restructure and shed jobs... Then a while later they quietly replace them in other areas.

My wife worked for a household name here in Aus. She was asked if she wanted to go for voluntary redundancy, she took it, was ready for a change. They wiped out her entire division. The media went ballistic.

Offered many of them equivalent roles in other departments. Media didn't mention that part, all they mentioned was the massive job losses. Fast forward two years, the chequebook is out and their advertising the same roles again. No mention of that on the news!

I'm not saying it's all sunshine and roses, but job losses don't always mean mass panic.

I actually think they are under reporting the job losses. I friend that worked in some kind of stats departed couldn't believe how little actally makes it to press.

[SurferMan]

It's all swing n roundabouts boys n girls. I work in IT, and it has it's fair share of ups n downs. You need to be relevant. The flavour of the month now is cloud. What is cloud? It's ASP 2.0 with a splash of lipstick and a new bit of underwear, same old hag underneath. All I did, add cloud to my integration skills and boom, I'm in. In the end a client wants someone who will deliver. I know I make it sound simple, but things change. In SAP, it's all going to in memory and cloud. Just learn the new skill and you're relevant.

[Donovan83]

Wow guys this is an encouraging thread!!!! Accept the good with the bad I guess. Onwards and upwards

All countries have their problems. You'll see once you've lived in Aus for a while your frame of reference changes. It is better here than in South Africa without a doubt.

Look at it this way:

• South Africa is heading into a recession. The collective ANC can't even run a bath, let alone find a way to run the economy properly in the GOOD times. Now the recession hits, what is their reaction going to be? Oh blame the whites and apartheid again. What a surprise that will be. On top of that you have them and certain other parties actively saying to foreign ("white imperialist") capital that their investment is not welcome in the country. There's only so much labour unrest and political rhetoric that an investment base will take before they basically say fine then and look elsewhere for a better investment. Then you have all that comes with a recession in Africa - violence, even more crime, blah blah we've seen it all before ten thousand times.

• Australia's economy has definitely cooled off. The reality is that the mining boom is over. The mining boom made us uncompetitive globally for things like manufacturing, eduction, anything that incurs large labour costs for export. So let's assume we hit a recession, which is likely since we're overdue for one by about 15 years - interest rates rise and there's even less money to go around. The exchange rate gets worse. I think this is where the big difference comes in - you have a more intelligent (but still not exactly the greatest) leadership that will hopefully navigate the country and make the most of what opportunities there are, NOT tell foreign investors to basically just f off. Things like crime and drugs would probably increase, infrastructure may not be as well maintained, but the impact on me as an individual would probably far less severe than it would be in a recession in RSA.

It's very oversimplified and maybe I am just justifying the enormous cost, inconvenience, stress etc that comes with moving country. Time will tell. Maybe South Africa will somehow trump Australia but right now things just don't seem to be headed that way, even with the bad news coming out about Australia's economy. I can't really remember a time when the world wasn't on the brink of falling apart, so I've just resolved to do my best and live my life in a way that I am conscious of the uncertainty about the future but I don't let it stop me doing things completely.

The 'property bubble' was also mentioned. It's a real worry. Interest rates may rise and people may be forced to sell and prices may fall. Ultimately you have to have a roof over your head - so that decision boils down to making sure you don't overextend yourself when you buy, and choosing to either absolutely definitely lose every cent you pay for that roof (rent), or take on the risk that the value of your property may drop but at least you own it. Even if values fall, ALL values will fall so if you sell your home for less, you'll have to pay less for the next one.

[SurferMan]

Excellent points not the property Donno. That is why I don't wanna go big, but big on leisure. So I would like a pool, big entertainment area and a small to medium house. Don't care for the bells and whistles. Where I am we literally live outside or on the beach except in winter, when we stay more indoors, and I braai on the fireplace, lol.

[Johnno]

Excellent points not the property Donno. That is why I don't wanna go big, but big on leisure. So I would like a pool, big entertainment area and a small to medium house. Don't care for the bells and whistles. Where I am we literally live outside or on the beach except in winter, when we stay more indoors, and I braai on the fireplace, lol.

Surferman, taking SA's crime out of the equation but rather looking at the kind of bucks you earned in SA and compared to what you now earn in Oz., where did you have the better lifestyle. I'm talking things like eating out, what you put in your shopping trolley, what you put on the BBQ, the cars you drove (you mentioned paying cash for cars in SA, can you do the same here), holidays even just weekends away and what you have left in you bank account at the end of the month?.

[ORC]

Australia to send troops to the middle east and there could be repercussions.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/fools-rush-in-tony-abbott-joins-a-war-without-definition-20140914-10gtib.html

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-to-deploy-forces-to-middle-east-20140914-10gqfc.html

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/australia-to-deploy-military-force-to-uae/5742498

All countries have good and bad points but unsure of how I feel about that on my path to PR.

Edited September 14, 2014 by RCO

[Donovan83]

Surferman, taking SA's crime out of the equation but rather looking at the kind of bucks you earned in SA and compared to what you now earn in Oz., where did you have the better lifestyle. I'm talking things like eating out, what you put in your shopping trolley, what you put on the BBQ, the cars you drove (you mentioned paying cash for cars in SA, can you do the same here), holidays even just weekends away and what you have left in you bank account at the end of the month?.

I don't know about anyone else but I am far, faaaaaar better off than I ever was in SA, even adjusting for the cost of living. I could not afford to live in South Africa how I now live in Australia, with one big difference, being that I don't own a car (by choice as I am trying to pay down a mortgage as quickly as possible and public transport/bicycle is fine for me).

I work hardish and I am not that high up in my job. I do some extra contract work which helps a lot (but I would be fine without the extra work, I'd just have less money to pay into the mortgage every month).

Edited September 14, 2014 by Donovan83

[AndreaL]

We are much better off here in Australia too Donovan83, but I think that tradespeople in Australia are, especially if they are lucky enough to have mining jobs.

[SurferMan]

Its not a straight arrow answer Johnno, but on the balance I say Aus is waaayyy better than SA.

Without giving away my income (I'm still salaried until PR, when I can go contract and earn lots more, but its high up) Let's just say I earn loads more than I did in SA. I had a bigger yard in SA, and lots of properties (Which the GFC neatly fixed for me ) and I had servants and a butler. So in the old SA way of thinking - grand living.

Here I watch my money more carefully, I have 3 kids now, which in SA was not an issue. But I live a better life, I am more alive, fitter, happier than I have ever been. (Except perhaps at 21 chasing Vaalie chicks on the beach....)

So: Remove crime and re-assess. Aus wins hands down, i have more work options here, I work silly hours (40 a week, really!) I could not buy cars cash here right now, for various reasons. But in 1 years time, I will be in the same boat and be able to do so if required. (But silly as its a depreciating asset..another lesson I learnt) My cars are now paid up and I will drive them a year or three more. Even if I have to drop a few grand to keep them going, its still cheaper than a new loan. Now its just the credit cards and I am sorted.

On the BBQ, I live like a king, I put seafood on, monster steaks etc. We eat out about the same as in SA, (few times a year) mostly cos we eat the Tim Noakes way and I wont allow crap into my and my families bodies. That said, we do pig out on crap (say Nandos or Hogs Breath) once in a while. We go somewhere most weekends, but some we stay at home or slip off to the beach 300m away. We have not had a formal holiday as such, but I aim to remedy that in the next 3 weeks!

Wont tell you what I have left in bank acc! I use the spare to service the last of my debt. Soon I will be 100% free of any financial encumbrance, then I can start all over again and get a house!

All up, Aus wins by a margin of about 8 to 1.

[funtobeaussiechick]

Johnno, I ask again, do you wish to live in Oz? It really appears that you keep making references to how bad Oz is. Life is way better here. Have you had a good look at SA lately? Ellerines is facing thousands of job losses. The point I am making is no Oz is NOT perfect but really hey c'mon we really are here for a reason.

SA is NOT safe. Is my life better here. YES. Put that in your pro SA pipe

[Fish]

The real issue is not the end of the mining boom but rather Australia's love affair with property and the belief that property investment is "as safe as houses". This one paragraph from the original report (linked in opening) explains a lot....

“To understand Australia's attitude to housing you need to understand the complacency that 23 years of uninterrupted economic growth creates. Australia is a country where 30-year-olds cannot remember the last recession and anyone under 35 probably wasn't old enough to care even if they can remember it. It has created a belief that recessions and downturns only happen in other, less-fortunate countries. Australians don't fear asset bubbles because they are just a problem that other countries deal with."

Nothing peeves me off more than the media fussing over a twenty something year old who "owns" 10 houses and is worth millions in real estate. Fact is that the bank owns the debt and the so-called "millionaire" has nothing to lose other than some face with his friends when the bubble bursts. It's a false economy built on debt, layer upon layer of debt! Someone mentioned in another thread that the Aussies are too occupied with selling each other overpriced real estate and I agree. The Australian economy is 100% reliant on mining, banks and real estate. Much of the real estate market is made of of favourable tax incentives in the form of negative gearing. This costs the government BILLIONS in tax and the government that changes it will lose power overnight, there is simply too much at risk. We have built this huge pyramid of property and someone is going to be caught when property prices are forced to into correction. It's all about affordability and so far all indicators are that affordability is getting more challenging. State governments open more land, developers look to build cheaper houses.....something must give!

It seems to me half the people under 35 spent their weekend on the internet either predicting or reading about real estate doom I think most of them have heard of the possibility. Many young people say it is a lot harder to get into real estate than previously....most who do buy, being internet savvy, would be acutely aware of all the bubble bursting talk...it has been predicted every year for years on the internet. Many would also have seen the widespread house price drops/stagnation over the last few years in many australian cities. People will get caught out when interest rates rise, but then a lot got caught out during every recession...because of structural differences in the economy interest rates increased a lot further in those days as well.

"The Australian economy is 100% reliant on mining, banks and real estate."...?.. .not sure what you mean here....is it not then 100% reliant on all the other things that contribute to the economy too ?

Edited September 15, 2014 by Fish

[Donovan83]

So true Fish. Everyone assumes that the first home buyers are these young 20 somethings that are just foaming at the mouth and buy the first property they see for much more than it's worth. Many of them accept that the cost of living in Australia is high and therefore they pay a high price, but not usually beyond what they can afford. The banks also base their calculations on the long term average (I think about 9%) when looking at how well an applicant can afford a loan.

They are faced with a choice - pay rent to someone else, ie pay off someone else's mortgage and have an absolute definite chance of never seeing a return on that money (and potentially being exposed to an increase in prices - unlikely but it may happen), or, buy their own place and even if over 10/15/20 years the price says the same, at least they eventually own their shelter.

What everyone discounts is that houses and apartments are people's homes. Because of this here's a huge emotional and instinctive thread that runs through the housing market because it's a primal need to have shelter. It's not quite as simple as people think.

[chzaau]

The question is Australia still a lucky country or maybe better put will the economy carry on delivering as it has.

Facts we know is China having a slow down, mining build is ending on bigger scale, time to operate. Car industry will shutdown. The government finances are under strain we are told and cutbacks are happening.

So the talk is times are harder, expect something. Yesterday there was an article about wages not increasing so people are finding it tough, there cost are up.

On the other hand property prices are through the roof here in Sydney. Feels odd and I'm not sure what driving prices up here. The reserve bank also started to say be careful with property, which is normal talk for we've got a problem Houston.

So that's the facts. Can you make it here. Certainly in good and bad. Just be prepared that it could be much harder then it's been in the past. Australia not experienced difficult in more then 20 years so it's possible for the economy to over react I.e be slow to realize there a problem and then layoff to many to quickly which starts to feed a cycle.

If you think you will hope off a plane into a job the whoo... whoo... stop and plan a bit better. Thing are much slower.

Edited September 15, 2014 by chzaau

[SurferMan]

Okay,

We are all gonna have different perspectives based on personal bias and experiences. To those who are here in Aus though, i would say the majority agree it's nicer here overall. I love it here.

[Donovan83]

Okay,

We are all gonna have different perspectives based on personal bias and experiences. To those who are here in Aus though, i would say the majority agree it's nicer here overall. I love it here.

+infinity

[funtobeaussiechick]

Trolls the Saffa mug and cheezy sidekick

Ha ha woo hoo we got off the plane and got jobs. Aus is the best. To all you trolls we love this country. We also love SA, but she is just toooooo wild

[DXB2OZ]

Am I the only one who really wants to hear more about SurferMan's butler?

[Nev]

Did he call him Jeeves?

[SurferMan]

Okay boys,

Here's the butler story. I decided in about 2009 to get myself a butler. His name was Bernard, a Malawian fellow of singular morality and good conscience. His main duties were to ensure there was always a fire going when I got home, cold beers and ice etc. (okay, I enjoyed a beer) Other tasks were mainly around comfort and ensuring the cars were sparkly clean and that the lapa was always ready to entertain guests at any time. For this he was paid about 4x more than the average garden bloke. I also paid for his education, family, he lived on the main property, I paid his water, lights, phone etc. his clothes and all other costs.

And no he did not have a white cloth over his arm...lol

Edited September 16, 2014 by SurferMan

[AndreaL]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/specials/boom-and-bust/

The only reason I posted this is because it has a small mention of my little town Moranbah We still have the largest coal reserves in Australia, Grosvenor coal mine is kicking off and South will soon follow, Adani got their approval to build the biggest coal mine in Australia with 9000 jobs http://iminco.net/adani-carmichael-coal-mine-jobs/

Mine building here in Central Queensland is still going on, I think it is just being kept quieter to maximise profits while the coal price is lower.

We are pumping out coal here, it is still being bought......on a good week, when production breaks records, the blokes can earn anywhere between $400 and $1500 bonus, minus tax of course, maybe things are different in Perth....perhaps they need to submit EOI's for the jobs at Adani.

The press here report things in odd ways, and you often have to dig to find the real story.

This is where I live, we just keep chugging along

[chzaau]

Australian coal exporters are scrambling to clarify the fallout from changes to China's coal import rules, which could expose the industry to billions of dollars in lost sales as China seeks to cut air pollution.

According to an analysis by Macquarie Bank, consultant Wood Mackenzie has indicated the ban could affect more than half of Australia's thermal coal exports to China, although the ban is also likely to hit Indonesian coal.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/risky-business-china-dumps-our-dirty-coal-20140916-3fvpf.html

[Nev]

Another bad news story to match the good news hey chzaau..... you still haven't answered my question....

[chzaau]

Sorry guys, ignore my previous story... I said something bad about Oz. I'm turning over a new leaf... will only report positive stories and stories that promote Australia.

[Nev]

Sounds good