The ZAR:AUD exchange rate... moertoe! :(

[Bronwyn&Co]

its all a very bad exchange rate until emille and his family goes to south africa on holiday and all of a sudden for those 3 weeks the SA rand is on an all time high - so if you want to have a good exchange rate for your Rands, sponsor me for a holiday and I can assure you the Rand will substantially increase

Emille, please tell me you're planning a holiday soon!

[OubaasDik]

Well, thankfully, I don't have very many rands left (partially thanks to the very dodgy financial advice I got from a Sanlam consultant) and the periods of unemployment in Oz. So all in all not much to worry about.

[Gizmo]

I came over 5 years ago and it was just over 7:1....

Are you sure? We also exchanged our money mid 2008 for 6.5-6.6

At the time we were pretty upset because the exhange rate had become so much worse than when we started the process a year and a half earlier - it was 5.something then.

[Gizmo]

Jordy, I think you might be slightly wrong on this figure - we arrived on 23 June 2008 and that time the rate was around the R7.66. Here is a breakdown of the historic rates I found on a website: http://www.x-rates.com/cgi-bin/hlookup.cgi

results (1 AUD) 2008-05-29 May 29, Thursday 7.23701 ZAR 2008-05-30 May 30, Friday 7.27309 ZAR 2008-06-02 June 02, Monday 7.36399 ZAR 2008-06-03 June 03, Tuesday 7.35012 ZAR 2008-06-04 June 04, Wednesday 7.45639 ZAR

In any event, the Rand's steady weakening just confirmed to me that I had to get everything I had outa Africa asap.

There were HUGE fluctuations in 2008 - you copped it at the worst! Just after mid 2008 we exchanged at 6.5-6.6

[moerbei]

Do you guys think it would be a good idea to open a bank account in Aus now and start transferring funds before things go south further?

[Donovan83]

Do you guys think it would be a good idea to open a bank account in Aus now and start transferring funds before things go south further?

Definitely.

[Erik]

Do you guys think it would be a good idea to open a bank account in Aus now and start transferring funds before things go south further?

Not sure I would do it right this second. The mining crisis has to come to some kind of point, after which there will be some kind of stability reached. The rand will probably strengthen a little then (if the idiots don't do something completely crazy, which i wouldn't put past them)

[Rover]

Do you guys think it would be a good idea to open a bank account in Aus now and start transferring funds before things go south further?

Yip, I would.

There are too many things counting against the Rand strengthening. I reckon we would look at R9.10 or R9.20 to the AUD by February 2013.

(Now watch it plummet back to R6.00...)

[MarcK]

Yip, I would.

There are too many things counting against the Rand strengthening. I reckon we would look at R9.10 or R9.20 to the AUD by February 2013.

(Now watch it plummet back to R6.00...)

R6....I wish!!!!

[Gerhardk]

If you had more than 50% success in guessing which way the Rand wil go you can trade forex and retire on that income.

Based on history the Rand will devaluate and arguably, all things being equal, should commodity prices decrease then both ZAR and AUD will depreciate equally. However ZAR is in Africa and in Africa anything is possible. That said, the AUD has been a safe haven with a high interest rate and money has been pouring in (from investors i.e. US). At some point the money may go back and AUD settle at 70c to USD.

[Rover]

If you had more than 50% success in guessing which way the Rand wil go you can trade forex and retire on that income.

Based on history the Rand will devaluate and arguably, all things being equal, should commodity prices decrease then both ZAR and AUD will depreciate equally. However ZAR is in Africa and in Africa anything is possible. That said, the AUD has been a safe haven with a high interest rate and money has been pouring in (from investors i.e. US). At some point the money may go back and AUD settle at 70c to USD.

If you do the opposite of what I think, you'd be safe. I tried the Forex thing on a practise account, and got it wrong 100% of the time. I only used mathematical trends and projections though, which may have been a mistake in a time when markets were very volitile.

[Bronwyn&Co]

If you do the opposite of what I think, you'd be safe. I tried the Forex thing on a practise account, and got it wrong 100% of the time. I only used mathematical trends and projections though, which may have been a mistake in a time when markets were very volitile.

Ja-wat Rover I feel the same. Every time we had any money to move, the bladdy rate spiked off the charts...eish.

[Gerhardk]

AUD now on 8.54, I am sure you can convert at around 8.70 with Exchange4free. AUD may even decline a bit more (or not!).

[Jacques Voogt]

When we were burgled back in 2006 and they took something from each room except where we were sleeping, we decided we need to move. At the time the exchange rate was around ZAR 5 to the AUD 1. Now 6 years later after obtaining a "sellable" degree and experience whatever we had put together is now almost halved.

Even the house we bought in 2006 has only grown about 30% in value but in AUD it would be cheaper to buy it now than 6 years ago.

The moral of the story is this. In your own ZAR currency, you may be earning more every year and be under the impression that financially your situation is slowly improving, but in a world economy you are losing money faster than you can earn it. At some point those world prices filter down to the ZAR in the form of imports. (Cars, electronics, food) and it has a snowball effect. So expect to one day be able to buy a loaf of bread with your life savings in ZAR.

[RichardH]

The moral of the story is this. In your own ZAR currency, you may be earning more every year and be under the impression that financially your situation is slowly improving, but in a world economy you are losing money faster than you can earn it. At some point those world prices filter down to the ZAR in the form of imports. (Cars, electronics, food) and it has a snowball effect. So expect to one day be able to buy a loaf of bread with your life savings in ZAR.

You have hit the nail on the head. In Aus a dollar is a dollar and is worth something. The ZAR? Well who knows where it is heading.

[LizM]

When we were burgled back in 2006 and they took something from each room except where we were sleeping, we decided we need to move. At the time the exchange rate was around ZAR 5 to the AUD 1. Now 6 years later after obtaining a "sellable" degree and experience whatever we had put together is now almost halved.

Even the house we bought in 2006 has only grown about 30% in value but in AUD it would be cheaper to buy it now than 6 years ago.

The moral of the story is this. In your own ZAR currency, you may be earning more every year and be under the impression that financially your situation is slowly improving, but in a world economy you are losing money faster than you can earn it. At some point those world prices filter down to the ZAR in the form of imports. (Cars, electronics, food) and it has a snowball effect. So expect to one day be able to buy a loaf of bread with your life savings in ZAR.

This is a really good explanationand point. Definitely something to add to the reasons to leave.

[Alida]

Haha... yes that's pretty much how things go for me too.

While I'm on holiday in Australia - "Rand crashes and burns again"

When I come back to RSA (and once I'd moved some money there) - "Rand SOARS to new heights!"

Well Emille and Donovan, please let us know when you two come to South Africa for a holiday, so we can know to arrange transfer of money in that timeframe But hey, why don't you come simultaneously, then we can have a doubly-as-good exchange rate and score !!! Weeeeeeee !!!

[Donovan83]

Haha... if we visited at the same time then you can expect at least R 3.50: $1. Rand soars to new heights!

[Toitjie]

Its already R 8.94 per AUD. this is so bad....I was initially thinking if I worked for a couple of months longer me pension would be bigger, but with this exchange rate, it will be less, even with steady growth

[Gerhardk]

Not only did it break R9 to AUD today it went to 9.13. I wished I placed some bets end of Sept at the time of my post above when it was 8.54. I am not sure it can go much higher but I thought the same thing at 7.20 mid 2011.

[Jacques Voogt]

Here is my "non-economist" prediction for the next 2 years:

We will experience a small recession.

Strikes will spill over from one industry to the next with a short pause over December. Who want's to strike when you are on leave.

The ANC will have their elections in December resulting in more uncertainty.

Prices WILL soar on electricity, fuel, food and have a knock on on all other imported items. (Cars, clothing, tools, machinery, electronics)

This drives inflation much higher resulting in more strikes as other feel the pinch.

Also expect higher interest rates from mid 2013 peaking in 2014

I think we would see some job losses starting early next year.

Expect the ZAR/USD rate to go to R10/1USD by end of the year and perhaps as much as R12 to R14/1USD by between 2013 and 2014.

Then things may stabilize at a new lower rate for a while before it plunges again.

This will of course see an increase in crime as a side effect.

Since 1 Jan 2011 the rand has lost 34% against the AUD. Unless you received that much interest on your investment plus inflation or growth on your house over the same period, you are now officially significantly poorer than 20 months ago.

I wish we had our visa already.

[GideonVD]

...I wish we had our visa already.

This we all can agree on...

[LizM]

Since 1 Jan 2011 the rand has lost 34% against the AUD. Unless you received that much interest on your investment plus inflation or growth on your house over the same period, you are now officially significantly poorer than 20 months ago.

Woah!!!

Perhaps I should move over with our boys and hubby join us when he can?!

[Emille]

Well Emille and Donovan, please let us know when you two come to South Africa for a holiday, so we can know to arrange transfer of money in that timeframe But hey, why don't you come simultaneously, then we can have a doubly-as-good exchange rate and score !!! Weeeeeeee !!!

everybody take note: I will be in south africa in March 2013 - transfer your money then

[Nev]

I traded forex for a while, firstly forex is the science of educated guesswork so you never know what will happen, please take this as my educated guesses and do what you see fit

A lot of forex trading is based on the psychology of the other traders, the market generally does what people expect it do do as that is what the masses actually do, banks can come in and mess things up with trades though

(Simplifying a bit) there are three trends in currency, short medium and long

Long is measured in months over a couple of years

Medium is measured in days over a couple of months

Short is measured in hours over a couple of days

(You also get minutes but that is not relevant here)

There are two things that generally prove to be true:

The longer a trend exists the more lightly it is to continue

When both medium and long reflect the same trend the more lightly it is to continue

Round numbers are called support & resistance levels, the currency will bounce off these round numbers, so just going over 9 then bouncing back down, at this point it will hover around this level for a bit before deciding (The traders) if it will go through the level and keep going or stay below

When it does bust thorough it normally makes quite a decisive movement and stays there

The Rand has been dropping for years and shows a negative trend in both the long and medium term so it it really lightly to continue, you might find it recovered a bit in the short to medium term if this bump is a spike, but overall it is getting worse and is set to continue

If you think it is in a spike at the moment and will recover slightly from this spike before continuing on the steady decline waiting a few days might be worth it,

Personally i think the current hit is a spike, it will recover slightly (It may have already with the over then under 9) but it is going to keep going beyond 9 based on the trend and when it makes the movement it will be a jump, also once it has gone over 9 (Without there being a 9/11 scenario that caused unnatural issues) i don't see it getting better than 9 again until there is some serious good news stories form SA and lack of bad news stories, which is also something i don't see happening any time

Cheers

Nev