Donovan83 Posted July 25, 2012 Report Share Posted July 25, 2012 I've been watching the exchange rate (as I am sure we all do). I've based all my costings and savings being converted on a rate of 8.5:1. I used this rate because, at the time, it allowed for a margin of weakening... the exchange rate was 8.30:1 at that time.Well... last week we had the rate cut and the rand actually got to the 8.50 mark. I was hoping that things would improve after the weekend... but then it fell to 8.60. I still held the hope up... until I checked this afternoon. Just under 8.70 to $1! What do you think the rate will do in the short term? Any chance of a recovery before the end of the year or is this where it's going to stay?My gut feel is that we might see a recovery over the next week or two, but it will probably hit 9:1 by the end of the year (or early next year) and about 10.30:1 by the end of next year. Argh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad76 Posted July 25, 2012 Report Share Posted July 25, 2012 You never know when it comes to our exchange rate...someone may say something stupid again causing the currency to depreciate even further.That being said and interest adjustments aside our currency for whatever reason may appreciate to the R8:1 mark or even better. I suppose a lot depends on what happens internationally over the next few months or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benp Posted July 25, 2012 Report Share Posted July 25, 2012 Current weakness of the Rand is more due to Euro crisis, and A$ is seen as safe-ish currency, so appreciation is expected, I do think it will come down over time to 8.10-8.30 range, but doubt it will ever go below 8 again, unless something really drastic happens in Oz.Budgeting on 8.50 is probably prudent, and if you can afford to time the market wait for more favorable rate in the next few months.However, if Greece or any of the peripherals really goes belly up, than anything is possible for the next year, R12+ to the A$, and Euro up the creek with no paddle...A$ and US$ will be seen as safe places to be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donovan83 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted July 25, 2012 I wish I had the same positive view. Every time I've tried to be positive about the rand, I get proved wrong. It just keeps sliding into oblivion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eva Posted July 25, 2012 Report Share Posted July 25, 2012 all it has done in the past three and a half years is get worse and worse... doubt it is going to change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcbear Posted July 25, 2012 Report Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just get your money and yourself out of SA asap, then you can start earning some dollars, only solution to the problem! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Posted July 26, 2012 Report Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm not conversant with the South African economic situation, but if the Rand is affected by the crisis unfolding in the Eurozone, then expect worse to come.The situation in southern Europe is that they simply have borrowed too much over the past 8 years, since the Euro was introduced in 1999, up until the GFC. It's often only when you dig beneath the surface that you notice the extent of the rot.Anyhow . . . . the cat is out of the bag, economically, and anyone thinking that Greece can, or wants to, pay its debts back is an optimist on a grand scale. If you earn $1 000 a month, and your repayments on debt have blown out to $1 200 a month, something has to give . . . . usually bankruptcy.You may be an optimist hoping for times to come good again so that you can earn more to pay back, but all the signs look like Europe has to go thro some tough times, economically, before things turn the corner.I would bet 2 to 1 that Greece leaves the Eurozone by the end of the year, sending shock waves thro the banking system in Britain and Europe, with the banks there seriously exposed to Greek debt and having to write most of it off their books.Spain also looks like following Greece. Italy is a close contender behind Spain, although a lot of European finance ministers will look at ways to keep them inside the Eurozone because if they declare bankruptcy and the British and European banks have to write their debts off, also, it will send Europe into a 1930s Great Depression.Personally, I know that everyone is depending on the Germans to cough up the dough to keep these countries afloat, but not even Germany has the economic might to do this. Some thought the German army in World War 2 was going to conquer the world, but that was simply asking too much of the Germans and its army. The same is true, today, of Germany and its economy. It is asking too much of the ordinary German worker and his / her life savings to see them evaporate in a big fiscal transfer to southern Europe. I think the German gov't would fall and the economy there fold, as well.If anyone on this website has the answer to the European dilemma, please forward them to the finance ministers there, because they don't seem to have a clue except to just pump enough cash into the system to keep it afloat for another couple of weeks. They lurch from week to week, never solving the problem outright once and for all.In economic hard times, people around the world seek safety. The American dollar has been the favourite currency, along with the Swiss Franc, to switch into.Now several reserve banks around the world have been switching into Australian dollars, also, as they look at Australia's prospects over the next decade or two and give it the "thumbs up". This is great if you are in Aus $$$$, not so great if you are in an "unsafe" currency, or one likely to be exposed to the Euro Train Wreck that is going to unfold slowly before our eyes pretty soon.My two bob's worth . . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nev Posted July 26, 2012 Report Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ouch, it was about 8.2 seven months ago when i came over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordy Posted July 26, 2012 Report Share Posted July 26, 2012 If in any doubt as to which direction it is going, then think of this. when we came over it was R5.26 to A$1. Thats four years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion25 Posted July 26, 2012 Report Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well from our experience, the rate is NOT going to improve, when we started the process the rate was 6.36:1 when we got our Visa it was 7.60:1, when our house trf eventually went through and we managed to trf money before we came it was 8.45:1 and it just keeps getting worse. Please I am not a negative person by nature, but this constant decline is not easy to watch for people we know still needing to convert. I do hope that things will improve but I think I may be a little foolish in that department. But yes miracles do happen, so here's to hoping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heymanse Posted July 26, 2012 Report Share Posted July 26, 2012 If in any doubt as to which direction it is going, then think of this. when we came over it was R5.26 to A$1. Thats four years ago.Jordy, I think you might be slightly wrong on this figure - we arrived on 23 June 2008 and that time the rate was around the R7.66. Here is a breakdown of the historic rates I found on a website: http://www.x-rates.com/cgi-bin/hlookup.cgi results (1 AUD) 2008-05-29 May 29, Thursday 7.23701 ZAR 2008-05-30 May 30, Friday 7.27309 ZAR 2008-06-02 June 02, Monday 7.36399 ZAR 2008-06-03 June 03, Tuesday 7.35012 ZAR 2008-06-04 June 04, Wednesday 7.45639 ZAR In any event, the Rand's steady weakening just confirmed to me that I had to get everything I had outa Africa asap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deroche Posted July 26, 2012 Report Share Posted July 26, 2012 I know. Have the app on my phone. Check it often and it scares me every time it goes up and up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagle101 Posted July 27, 2012 Report Share Posted July 27, 2012 I use this website to keep an eye on the AUDZAR exchange rate - quite useful, as can quickly see the situation in chart form, from 1 day to 5 yearshttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDZAR=X Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donovan83 Posted July 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2012 Seems to be easing off a bit... currently hovering around R 8.55 to $ 1. I have no doubt that the long term trend is downwards though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcK Posted July 27, 2012 Report Share Posted July 27, 2012 Dear South African Rand,We left a few of you behind in the comfort of a bank account in the hope that you would pull through and recover against the strength of the Australian dollar. But in the 6 weeks or so since we left your shores there has been no improvement. Please pull through and gain some ground against the dollar so we can bring you across the pond to join us.RegardsIdiot who thought the rand would strengthen against the Aus dollar! 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emille Posted July 27, 2012 Report Share Posted July 27, 2012 its all a very bad exchange rate until emille and his family goes to south africa on holiday and all of a sudden for those 3 weeks the SA rand is on an all time high - so if you want to have a good exchange rate for your Rands, sponsor me for a holiday and I can assure you the Rand will substantially increase 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donovan83 Posted July 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2012 Haha... yes that's pretty much how things go for me too. While I'm on holiday in Australia - "Rand crashes and burns again"When I come back to RSA (and once I'd moved some money there) - "Rand SOARS to new heights!" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emille Posted July 28, 2012 Report Share Posted July 28, 2012 ha ha - ! Donovan yes how its always with me - whether we are in the UK and its the pounds exchange rate or in Australia and its the dollar exchange rate = murphys law Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracy Posted August 6, 2012 Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 Jordy, I think you might be slightly wrong on this figure - we arrived on 23 June 2008 and that time the rate was around the R7.66. Here is a breakdown of the historic rates I found on a website: http://www.x-rates.c...bin/hlookup.cgi results (1 AUD) 2008-05-29 May 29, Thursday 7.23701 ZAR 2008-05-30 May 30, Friday 7.27309 ZAR 2008-06-02 June 02, Monday 7.36399 ZAR 2008-06-03 June 03, Tuesday 7.35012 ZAR 2008-06-04 June 04, Wednesday 7.45639 ZAR In any event, the Rand's steady weakening just confirmed to me that I had to get everything I had outa Africa asap.I came over 5 years ago and it was just over 7:1.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donovan83 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 Seems to be recovering a little bit. Came back from 8.80 to 8.70 this morning... hope it continues. Jeez! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcK Posted August 6, 2012 Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 I wouldn't mind it dropping to R7.90!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BasilB Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 Waiting for immigration to grant PR on Contributory Parent Visa...-... .Application Dec 2011 and all looked as if we could afford to move to Oz...-....Exchange rate over past 12 months is making this look almost impossibe...currently earning private pension that would be only income in Oz...-...anyone out there in same/similar situation?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Tanne Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 I agree with the comments above about the Euro crisis having a huge effect, but it is also the fact that with all the ongoing mining labour disputes, strikes, Malema talking etc, it is driving further investment OUT of SA, and that plays a huge role too.I would not want to risk investing in SA.Also bear in mind that the rates you look at are spot rates, so when you actually buy, it is even worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronwyn&Co Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 It's a bloody nightmare! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riekie Posted September 16, 2012 Report Share Posted September 16, 2012 Glad we got all our money out! When we started out it was 1 : 3.something. Not too many moons ago... Wait another 10 years and you'll be on the double digits (if not sooner...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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