Tiermelk Posted July 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 AUD/ZAR back down to 1.00 AUD = 10.9097 ZAR The AUD might weaken a bit this week with the election so if there are no shocks in SA this week the next day or two might see an even better rate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted July 4, 2016 Report Share Posted July 4, 2016 Dont be too much in a hurry as it gets even better later in the year. (as provided by RCIS services) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alchemist Posted July 4, 2016 Report Share Posted July 4, 2016 (edited) Good time to move cash? What affects the Aus Dollar ie makes it stronger against ZAR? @ottg i hear the rumours of another SA downgrade coming.....what do you all think of the 4th quarter Rand values? Edited July 4, 2016 by Alchemist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 (edited) On 7/4/2016 at 8:00 PM, Alchemist said: hear the rumours Rumors are of no value - dont react on it. Next the "markets" have already discount their real underlying issues. I only use tools based on mathematical algorithms (the above case is FFTs) However its reliable only for the short term and logically gets less reliable the further out the time period. The next aspect is the current sector growth. Unfortunately it doesnt look good for RSA in the short term. But more impressively is to watch the other markets (these selection were done 3 monts ago and based on fundamental analysis and how they perform today): Example ASX CII.AX 2.56 +0.06 +2.40% 1 2.56 5,000 AUD12,800.00 AUD+2,450.00 +23.67% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board FMG.AX 3.83 +0.04 +1.06% 1.44 3.9 3,039 AUD11,639.37 AUD+1,291.06 +12.48% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board FNP.AX 4.41 +0.01 +0.23% 2.75 5 2,915 AUD12,855.15 AUD+2,506.70 +24.22% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board MNF.AX 3.93 -0.02 -0.51% 2.95 4.39 2,590 AUD10,178.70 AUD-168.70 -1.63% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board RCR.AX 1.75 -0.02 -1.41% 1.11 2.58 7,633 AUD13,357.75 AUD+3,008.52 +29.07% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board REA.AX 61.49 +0.82 +1.35% 39.41 61.59 192 AUD11,806.08 AUD+1,472.08 +14.25% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board and example the US market CTAS 99.30 0.20 0.20% 78 99.69 81 AUD 10,680.70 AUD 892.75 9.12% Chart, News, Options MKTX 150.03 5.44 3.76% 86.19 151.4 57 AUD 11,355.82 AUD 1,859.71 19.58% Chart, News, Options SHEN 39.32 0.04 0.10% 15.68 39.95 240 AUD 12,533.96 AUD 2,884.20 29.90% Chart, News, Options Not even in the BRexit market with all the doom & gloom you get performers because fundamentals make shares robust against the volatility of the markets So hear is LSE with some of my selections 3 month ago and how they perform today BNZL.L 2,350.00 31.00 1.34% 1,665 2,359 270 AUD 10,947.41 AUD 1,420.83 14.91% Chart, News HSX.L 1,010.00 1.00 0.10% 854 1,067 500 AUD 8,704.44 AUD 819.55 10.39% Chart, News REL.L 1,414.00 10.00 0.71% 631.02 1,432 370 AUD 9,039.51 AUD 1,321.45 17.12% Chart, News But need to admit that the overall portfolio do have a few lemons in. Edited July 7, 2016 by ottg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiermelk Posted July 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 14 hours ago, ottg said: But need to admit that the overall portfolio do have a few lemons in. Do you do this for a living? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 No just an interest in all good things but thanks for asking! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiermelk Posted July 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 On 7/8/2016 at 4:55 PM, ottg said: No just an interest in all good things but thanks for asking! Looking good. Just started my own journey, mostly holding ETF`s but looking at individual stocks as well. One thing I am not sure about yet is how to you pick the stocks to look at, because you can not do a analysis on all of them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 2 hours ago, Tiermelk said: you can not do a analysis on all of them? Good on you for taking the time to familiarise yourself with these essentials. It's a journey which takes a lot of time but once you found something that gels with you it becomes easier overtime. Back to your statement; unfortunately you have to be able to analise them all. Therefore you need the correct tools as yu cannot do it all manually. How? A bit of a repeat here: https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=2542700#r15 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiermelk Posted July 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 On 7/10/2016 at 11:28 PM, ottg said: Good on you for taking the time to familiarise yourself with these essentials. It's a journey which takes a lot of time but once you found something that gels with you it becomes easier overtime. Back to your statement; unfortunately you have to be able to analise them all. Therefore you need the correct tools as yu cannot do it all manually. How? A bit of a repeat here: https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=2542700#r15 Thanks, will have a look - I normally keep a close eye on Whirpool finance section. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RYLC Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 (edited) On 10/07/2016 at 7:58 PM, Tiermelk said: Looking good. Just started my own journey, mostly holding ETF`s but looking at individual stocks as well. One thing I am not sure about yet is how to you pick the stocks to look at, because you can not do a analysis on all of them? People use stock scanners to narrow down the search. You can put in any parameters you like such as price range, dividend yield, PE ratio, volume, market cap. Share software has this feature built in mostly but you can google for stock scanners or start with Yahoo Finance for an idea of what's possible.https://screener.finance.yahoo.com/stocks.html Also a stock broker friend once told me to buy shares in things people use every day without thinking. So petrol, electricity, telephones etc. That might be a starting point? Edited July 13, 2016 by RYLC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 34 minutes ago, RYLC said: things people use every day without thinking Saw today the business premises where I was used to work many years ago is up fo sale however the bakery next door is still going strong....that supports your point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 1 hour ago, RYLC said: People use stock scanners to narrow down the search The problem with stock scanners are that they dont get exactly what you want. I have tried most stock scanners while only one gives me 5 years average dividend growth. (eg Needed 1, 2, 5, 10 years) Also cannot change the duration or cannot have multiples of the same filter. Some do not offer a free trial period. Then there are many complaints about Yahoo Finance ( however I use it often) This one offer some results: http://www.google.com/finance#stockscreener Also http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free-charting_software/free-charting-software.php (the owners are expats) or http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/stock-screener.aspx In short you need to know exactly what you are looking for and quite often you will find that you need access to the raw data to do additional calculations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RYLC Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 50 minutes ago, ottg said: In short you need to know exactly what you are looking for and quite often you will find that you need access to the raw data to do additional calculations. Yes knowing what you want is the starting point. There are some good books out there on writing up your own trading plan based on your capital, holding period, growth or income etc. Thanks for reminding me about Incredible Charts. I'd forgotten about them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsta Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Just buy Blackmores (ASX:BKL) a year ago... and you will be all good! Some good advise on shares: Figure out what makes the share go up and what makes it go down. For example, the Chinese are scared of the quality of goods they can buy in their own country. So it was a matter of time before they would buy up vitamins made in Australia. And only a matter of time before a Chinese company would want to buy Blackmores. The issue is Blackmores is now too expensive for a Chinese company to buy them out.. So the stock price will have to go down. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-08/australian-vitamin-companies-china-takeover-targets/7578120 The same applies to any financial instrument you buy... even your Exchange Traded Funds. For example, AFI used to be amazing, but has done terribly over the last year. Why? because they are invested mainly in mining, banks and big retailers. Chinese labour prices are going up... meaning they are manufacturing less and thus need less minerals from Australia. The banks are down because they have loaned money to mining ventures that could go insolvent because of lower commodity prices.. Add to that Aldi is shaking up big retailers like Woolworths and Westfarmers. But, a fixed interest EFT like "Vanguard Fixed Interest" is crushing it as investors are running scared and buying up bonds. So, what about the next few years? Well the USA is doing better than people expect... so China is having a bit of a downside right now.. but it won't be long and they will be buying up Aussie minerals to make things for the USA. But it may take a year or two... its more of a gradual recovery for China (as happens when there isn't a big dip). So, sell the Fixed Interest EFT in a 6 months to a years time and buy up AFI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RYLC Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Another ETF, Vanguard Australian Property (VAP) is also crushing it particulary after Brexit for some reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiermelk Posted July 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 20 minutes ago, RYLC said: Another ETF, Vanguard Australian Property (VAP) is also crushing it particulary after Brexit for some reason. With office buildings and retail spaces empty all over Sydney? I think sometimes there is no logic in what the market does... I`ve read articles on AFR where they say that risk and defensive assets classes are rallying at the same time which does not make sense. (http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/three-forces-explain-global-investings-most-extraordinary-paradox-20160712-gq4g34) Maybe there`re to much money doing the rounds and no opportunity? Also money coming into Australia from places like Japan as they see Australia as safe and can at least get some return here. Disclaimer - I have no idea what I`m taking about! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 (edited) My trivial observations on BLK:ASX is that its a young stock, small market capitalisation etc and just been through a bubble (RCIS Services). Some promising event or news must have caused it to flareup. My stats shows it's still undervalued, low risk but PE, DY & EY is below group average. As it shows up as a rising star may be worthwhile checking it but not buying yet. Normally if my entire portfolio are all quality shares then I will add one speculative rising star. If this rising star starts to perform greed may step in, such that you keep pumping it and eventually dominate the portfolio. With a suddenly falls from stardom it can be painful. In the same rising star group perhaps rather consider AMA Group, G8 Education or K2 Assest Management Holding, but that said I wont go for any of those either. Back to the graphics display above and when to buy i.e technical analysis? Look at the Mass indicator (a derivative of the volume indicator) that started moving upwards long before the price increase started i.e leading indicator. Now note the velocity indicator (derivative of rate of change). Now when the FFT green trend line (in upper portion) also moves up in synch with the previous two indicators you will have a 80% change of successful. However you still need the fundamental analysis to ensure its a quality share that will provide sustainability. There are many, many technical indicators and some chartists swear high and low they have the answers. Looking at "incredible charts" provide an insight into that. For me technical analysis are only giving the "short term when" and no substance to sustainable quality. Edited July 14, 2016 by ottg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted September 2, 2016 Report Share Posted September 2, 2016 @TiermelkJust an uUpdate on the ASX portfolio above 2 months later: CII.AX 2.25 0.00 0.00% 1.11 2.77 5,000 AUD11,250.00 AUD+900.00 +8.70% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board FMG.AX 4.84 +0.06 +1.26% 1.44 5.13 3,039 AUD14,708.76 AUD+4,360.45 +42.14% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board FNP.AX 5.08 +0.08 +1.60% 2.75 5.2 2,915 AUD14,808.20 AUD+4,459.75 +43.10% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board MNF.AX 4.28 -0.03 -0.81% 2.95 4.4 2,590 AUD11,085.20 AUD+737.80 +7.13% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board RCR.AX 2.49 +0.02 +0.81% 1.11 2.75 7,633 AUD19,006.17 AUD+8,656.94 +83.65% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board REA.AX 57.14 -1.26 -2.16% 40.17 65.77 192 AUD10,970.88 AUD+636.88 +6.16% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board The US market: CTAS 117.70 +0.19 +0.16% 80 118 81 AUD12,642.49 AUD2,867.92 29.34% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board MKTX 169.53 +0.99 +0.59% 86.19 170.41 57 AUD12,815.93 AUD3,331.55 35.13% Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board But SHEN did do well at -15% On BLK:AX was exactly as predicted above on a downwards spiral with a very large sell-off a few days ago. Thus its all in the fundamentals. So what will you do if a stock looses >10% of its value after the last peak? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiermelk Posted September 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2016 Looks better than mine! Complete portfolio sitting at +2.3%, over the last two months. Was up 10% at one stage. I have one that lost 20%, but it seems to be climbing back up(-15% at the moment). IFN:ASX. I think in hindsight I should have gotten out at -5%, there were a lot more sellers than buyers for a few days and the price was falling rather quickly. But then maybe I would not have gotten back on! I am keeping this one as a long term play. Renewable energy should grow in the future. The only problem with it is that it can not always deliver the energy when required, wind might be blowing at 3am but no one is using energy... That brings us to AVL:ASX (not holding). Which is a vanadium miner (wanna be) which also owns a business that sells (they`ve sold one ) Vanadium Redox Batteries (very large batteries), which IFN can use to store energy for when it`s required. I`ve been watching REA for an entry point as well. BTW - what is RCIS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted September 2, 2016 Report Share Posted September 2, 2016 21 minutes ago, Tiermelk said: BTW - what is RCIS? Richard Cluver Investment services - can send pm if you want to know more after looking at their website 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted September 11, 2016 Report Share Posted September 11, 2016 (edited) So the ASX market is running out of steam and time to dump (and pay CGT) CII.AX; FMG.AX; RCR.AX; REA.AX This is best to be done in 1/3 tranches as you wont know where the turning point is. While FNP.AX and MNF.AX are on the serious look and see list. So what to look out for then: buy CCP.AX however it looks if FNP.AX may turn upwards again on 17 Oct 2016 while MNF.AX still looks like a bit of steam left till early next year. Will add the others as the opportunity arises and can then check in 3 months time Edited September 11, 2016 by ottg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottg Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 An interesting article offers food for though on what impacts an economy/energy prices/stocks and how little influence politics really have.Six Truths about Washington—Regardless of Who Wins https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/investors/article/what-investors-need-to-know-about-the-2016-election/six-truths-about-washington-regardless-of-who-wins?cmpid= Can we make the assumption that those points also accounts for most other governments? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leroy Posted July 4, 2017 Report Share Posted July 4, 2017 On 6/17/2016 at 9:08 AM, FrodoBeanbaggins said: Speaking of peer-to-peer exchange, has anyone tried or considered Bitcoin? In theory it is the most efficient way of converting currency since there are no overheads. I'm not very familiar with the ways of exchanging Bitcoin, but one way seems to be P2P (i.e. you buy an amount that someone has put up for sale at a certain rate, and then put up that amount for sale and wait for someone to buy). For small amounts this should be OK but I'm not so sure about doing it with a couple R100k... Given Bitcoin's potential volatility you'd want to exchange as quickly as possible. Of course if you'd bought Bitcoin a month or two ago you'd have a nice 20% return now... @FrodoBeanbaggins I have done extensive reading on Bitcoin and I am very comfortable using and investing in it. I must admit I have never transferred money from one country to another but in theory it should be straight forward. Ever country nowadays has at least 2-3 bitcoin exchanges that talk directly to the banks so you can do transfers in and out. The process in my mind would thus look like this. 1. Register with a local SA bitcoin exchange (https://www.luno.com/) transfer money with your FNB (or any bank) account into the exchange and buy your Bitcoin. 2. Register with a AUS exchange (https://www.coinjar.com/) transfer your Bitcoin to that exchange which should take less than an hour. 3. Open a AUS bank account 4. Sell your Bitcoin on the Coinjar exchange and withdraw to your Aussie bank account. I should note that there might be a monthly withdrawal limit on the exchanges. All these exchanges use strict KYC (Know Your Customer) similar to FICA. So the more information (proof of address, ID etc) you give them the higher your monthly withdrawal (into AUD or ZAR) limit will be. Like I said in theory that's how it works but I would welcome if anyone can tell me what I have missed? Or even better if someone has gone through the process themselves. International transfers of money is what Bitcoin is most commonly used for so the idea is not far fetched at all. Cheers Leroy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bdupreez Posted July 4, 2017 Report Share Posted July 4, 2017 Problem with Bitcoin is that the ZA exchange is more expensive that the US or AU one... so you will be loosing money that way... however... if you need to send money back here for family or the like... And you buy in AU and send the coin to ZA you will gain a couple grand... check the values... it was like that a little while ago... doubt its changed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrodoBeanbaggins Posted July 5, 2017 Report Share Posted July 5, 2017 15 hours ago, Bdupreez said: Problem with Bitcoin is that the ZA exchange is more expensive that the US or AU one... so you will be loosing money that way... This is one reason why I decided against using Bitcoin to tranfer funds to Oz. The other is that disposing of Bitcoin for fiat currency attracts capital gains tax in Oz and I was concerned about the tax implications of doing large transfers that way. @Leroy, do you know if that is an issue in practise? I suppose if the value doesn't change much in between buying and selling there wouldn't be much gain/loss, but I'm not certain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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