I know that no one has a crystal ball.....but I was wondering if anyone had any predictions on the strength of the USD over the next year.......

[Nix]

I know that no one has a crystal ball.....but I was wondering if anyone had any predictions on the strength of the USD over the next year.......

We live in the Caribbean and our currency is pegged to the USD, so the amount we emigrate with is directly proportional to what happens over the next year. Over the last two months, I have watched the USD fall against the AUD (and every other major currency), and I am concerend that if this trend continues, it will severely impact our emigration as our funds will be severely eroded....

Any thoughts? Any comments? Any ideas? Any discussions?

Nix

P.S. I know this is probably a topic for the "money" board, but this one if more active.....

[Springbok]

You are right Nix, NO ONE has a crystal ball, not even the best of experts. But you may want to have a look at Jim Sinclair's formula at www.jsmineset.com:

1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.

2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.

3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.

4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.

5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.

6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.

7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.

8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).

9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.

10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.

11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.

12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.

see US Dollar Index below... nothing that indicates a reversal of trend yet.

I know that no one has a crystal ball.....but I was wondering if anyone had any predictions on the strength of the USD over the next year.......

[Nix]

A very comprehensive revert and MOST interesting....and it confirms my worst fears. I think we need to work on trying to convert our currency out of USD as rapidly as possible.

I want to thank you for taking the time and effort to write this response - someone elses thinking is always welcome, especially on a topic like this.....

Nix

[Nilo]

Springbok, jy is obviously in die Finansieele bedryf of vreeslik geintereseerd hier in.

Ok nou se vir die blond, hoekom word die wereld ekonomie deur die Dollar beinvloed? Die Euro word of is amper net so sterk. Ek weet Amerika is groot en al die movies ens word daar gemaak en dat almal soos Amerika wil wees, maar Europa en die Ooste is so feel ouer as Amerika!

Het die Film bedryf en TV bedryf genoem want ek voel mens word amper geprogrameer hoe om oor dinge te voel en watter reaksie mens moet he. Not good!!!!

Toe boetie in plein afrikaans, verduidelik vir my seblief.

O, en sommer hoekom word die Aus $ sterker en die SA Rand swakker.

Lovies

Nilo

[Springbok]

Springbok, jy is obviously in die Finansieele bedryf of vreeslik geintereseerd hier in.

jip, beide!

Ok nou se vir die blond, hoekom word die wereld ekonomie deur die Dollar beinvloed? Die Euro word of is amper net so sterk. Ek weet Amerika is groot en al die movies ens word daar gemaak en dat almal soos Amerika wil wees, maar Europa en die Ooste is so feel ouer as Amerika!

Baie jare gelede was die wêreldekonomie deur die Britse Pond oorheers, maar die VSA het ekonomies al sterker geword totdat die US Dollar oorgeneem het by die Pond. Meeste handel wêreldwyd word in die US Dollar gedoen, jy sal ook sien dat kommoditeitspryse soos goud, olie en koper alles in terme van US Dollar geprys word. Maar dis stadig besig om te verander noudat die Euro 'n teenvoeter is, sowel as die Chinese yuan (Renminbi, of RMB). Die VSA dollar is besig om te val omdat die VSA hopeloos te veel skuld het. Ander lande voel nie meer so gemaklik om US Dollars in hul reserwes te hou nie, so as hulle begin US Dollars verkoop, laat dit die Dollar verswak. En dan is daar ander ekonomiese probleme soos die "sub-prime home loans". In kort, die Amerikaners het vir te lank bokant hulle vermoëns geleef en nou's dit payback time. En dan's daar nog die billions of dollars spent at the Iraq war.

lees gerus www.jsmineset.com - dis redelik tegnies soms, maar 'n uitstekende daaglikse oorsig oor die dollar, euro, goud ens. Hoe meer jy lees, hoe makliker sal jy die tegniese dele begin verstaan.

Het die Film bedryf en TV bedryf genoem want ek voel mens word amper geprogrameer hoe om oor dinge te voel en watter reaksie mens moet he. Not good!!!!

100% reg, baie goeie observasie! En raai wie "besit" meeste van die media in die VSA? Big business & politics. Sodat hulle hulle propaganda kan verkondig. If you repeat a lie long enough, the people will eventually believe it.

Toe boetie in plein afrikaans, verduidelik vir my seblief.

O, en sommer hoekom word die Aus $ sterker en die SA Rand swakker.

Beide Aus en SA het baie kommoditeite (goud, platinum, ystererts, steenkool, ens.) wat uitgevoer word na ander lande. Veral China koop kommoditeite in groot maat aan en dis een v/d redes hoekom die Aus$ en SA Rand sterker teen die US dollar word. Maar dit hang ook af van hoeveel buitelandse beleggers in 'n land belê. Aus se ekonomie is baie meer stabiel en beleggingsvriendelik as S.A. s'n en Aus het geen "exchange control" nie, dus voel mense meer gerus om in Aus te belê. Hoe meer geld instroom, hoe sterker word die land se wisselkoers. S.A. se ekonomie is meer riskant vir internasionale beleggers en soos dinge nou aangaan lyk dit my hulle is al meer sku om daar te belê. Daar is nog baie ander redes, maar hierdie gee jou 'n basiese idee.