WA facing 150,000 workers shortfall

[ottg]

WA facing 150,000 workers shortfall

Economy: 12-November-09 by AAP & Rebecca Lawson

(from WA Business News)

A substantial fall in the state's unemployment rate to 5 per cent has sparked concern that WA is not ready for the next wave of growth, with a business lobby group projecting a shortfall of 150,000 workers within seven years.

Today, WA recorded one of the country's lowest jobless rates, falling from a revised down 5.7 per cent in September to 5.0 per cent in October.

It is the state's lowest unemployment rate since April and is more than double the October 2008 jobless rate of 2.3 per cent.

Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief economist John Nicolau today said the sharp fall in the number of Western Australians looking for work - from 69,600 to 60,600 - is a further sign the local economy is gearing up for a new period of growth and opportunity.

"The brighter economic outlook, after what has been a difficult year for many local businesses, does not come without its challenges," he said.

"Time is running out for State and Federal Governments to ensure the State is ready for the next wave of growth.

"Heading the list of challenges is labour shortages.

"A growing number of Western Australian employers are becoming increasingly concerned they won't be able to find the workers they need.

"CCI forecasts the State will need an extra 400,000 workers within seven years. Based on current projections, we are likely to fall 150,000 workers short."

Mr Nicolau added the Barnett government could help by accelerating its workforce development strategy while the federal government can make it easier for employers to hire overseas workers to fill positions that cannot be met by local workers.

"These challenges must be addressed as a matter of priority to ensure the State stands ready, and can make the most of the many opportunities headed our way," Mr Nicolau said.

Meantime, the rise in total employment nationally will give the Reserve Bank of Australia confidence to lift interest rates for a third straight month in December, economists say.

The nation added 24,500 jobs in October, the ABS said.

The median market forecast was for total employment to have fallen by 10,000 in the month.

AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver said the jobs figures have raised the prospect of an RBA interest rate rise in December.

"The odds are now tilted back in favour of a rate hike," Dr Oliver said.

Dr Oliver said the labour force report, along with the NAB business survey and consumer confidence report published this week, showed the economy was "withstanding the shift to gradually higher interest rates".

"That would embolden the RBA to tighten again in December," Dr Oliver said.

The RBA has lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage points, at the past two monthly meetings.

The cash rate sits at 3.5 per cent.

The number of full-time jobs rose by 2,900 in October, while part-time employment was increased by 21,500.

The nation's jobless rate crept up 0.1 percentage points in October to 5.8 per cent.

The unemployment rate has moved between 5.7 and 5.8 per cent for the past six months.

Dr Oliver said he would be "extremely surprised" if the unemployment rate rose much further.

"We've turned the corner," Dr Oliver said.

"I think it is more confirmation that we've either seen the peak in unemployment or we're pretty close to it.

"I think the more likely scenario is we'll spend several months bouncing around current levels before we start falling through next year."

The Australian dollar reacted positively to the data.

The local currency was trading at about $US0.9311 just before the figures were released at 1130 AEDT, and rose to $US0.9367 shortly afterwards.

Commsec economist Sevanth Sebastian described it as a "great result" for employment, in line with what the market was expecting.

It left the door open for the Reserve Bank to either raise rates or keep them on hold in December.

"Really you're seeing that shift still in place between part time and full time," he said.

"We were expecting job creation rather than job destruction and that's really what we've seen."

He forecast the unemployment rate would peak at six per cent, despite tracking "marginally higher" in the latest reading.

"We believe the peak in unemployment is just around the corner and the six per cent mark is looking more and more likely on a monthly basis as the data comes through."

The Reserve Bank's "hint" of an improvement in labour market conditions in its monetary policy statement last week had been confirmed in Tuesday's NAB business survey, he said.

"It suggests the Reserve Bank may have the opportunity to raise rates in December if they want to.

"I think it's going to be a line call.

"They've never raised rates three months in a row in history, so they do have the opportunity to hold off if they want to, but it will probably come down to the day."

He said the 0.1 per cent growth in unemployment was not of any concern.

"The trend of the data in terms of employment indexes from business confidence, the anecdotal evidence we're seeing at the moment, with businesses bringing back some of the investment projects that they put on hold all suggests that employment and the labour market will pick up and I think the ANZ job ads really confirmed that over the last few months."

[Toitjie]

When I was there in July, there was some talk that they would import chinese labourers to cover the projected shortfall.

It would be an interesting move, but I dont think they have thought that one through welll enough

[miran]

Pick me!!!!! Pick me!!!!!!

[CandiceM]

WA companies reacted badly to the financial global crisis. We were in WA last year and my DH was made redundant along with about 100 other electrical engineers with his specific interest (according to the recruitment agent at the time.) At the moment there is still no interest in DH skills.

"A growing number of Western Australian employers are becoming increasingly concerned they won't be able to find the workers they need.

Hopefully they stop waste energy on being concerned and start hiring, and hopefully there is a job with our name on it...

[Cramer]

When I was there in July, there was some talk that they would import chinese labourers to cover the projected shortfall.

It would be an interesting move, but I dont think they have thought that one through welll enough

Toitjie

Why dont they just give us our Damm Visa's I will pick up the slack there!!!!!

[Toitjie]

Toitjie

Why dont they just give us our Damm Visa's I will pick up the slack there!!!!!

Cheap labour. Oz dont have cheap labour like South Africa does.

[Cramer]

If you give me a PR Visa, I will be cheap labour!

[Toitjie]

he he he, I hear you, maybe we should write another letter to Senator Evans explaing our solution to their problem of labour shortages and our problem of wanting visas. Maybe this time he will listen...

see ya on the mines....

[Cramer]

Got my Pick and Spade and I am ready!!

[ottg]

WA firms not ready for skills shortage

• Cortlan Bennett, Business Editor

• From: The Sunday Times

• January 02, 2010 6:21PM

SMALL and medium businesses are not prepared for the looming skills shortage expected to hit WA when the resources sector picks up again later this year.

According to the Small Business Development Corporation, most small and medium enterprises either have seen no increase in demand for skilled workers or do not believe there will be a skills shortage later this year - despite a number of significant resources projects, such as the $43 billion Gorgon gas project, starting to come on stream.

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, mining investment has already risen to record levels and could continue to rise substantially over the next five years - most of it concentrated in WA's North-West oil and gas sector.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics reported in November that the value of advanced resource project had jumped 41 per cent to a record $112.46 billion in the six months to the end of October.

Aside from oil and gas, major developments are in the pipeline for the iron ore, uranium and gold sectors.

In total, about 80 major job-generating resource projects are expected to be launched across Australia from now until 2020.

However, according to the SBDC's latest survey, most small and medium businesses are unprepared for a repeat of the WA skills shortage that drove the cost of labour, real estate and other commodities to record highs at the height of the resources boom from 2004-06.

"It appears that many small business operators are unaware of the likelihood that skills shortages will soon be a major issue for WA once again," SBDC acting managing director Jacky Finlayson said.

"With all economic indicators signifying a return to high employment levels, competition will be strong for good quality workers.

"Despite this, only 35 per cent of respondents recognised that it may become more difficult to retain staff in the year ahead."

According to the SBDC poll, many small and medium business operators had found ways of retaining staff during the global financial crisis in the hope of being better staffed when activity returned to normal.

"Seventy-two per cent of small business respondents said they'd had no trouble attracting and retaining staff over the past year, by providing flexible working conditions, offering financial bonuses and taking on mature-aged workers," Ms Finlayson said.

But it was of huge concern that "a large number of respondents (73 per cent) did not expect to face any difficulties in recruiting new staff over the next 12 months".

"With large infrastructure and resource projects ready to commence around the state, initiatives aimed at retaining good workers would be a wise priority for small business operators," she said.

The SBDC survey of the Perth metropolitan area, Goldfields, Great Southern, Mid-West, South-West and Peel regions found 46 per cent of small and medium businesses were planning to hire more staff in the next 12 months.

But 31 per cent of respondents said they would definitely not consider employing or sponsoring a migrant to fill a vacancy, while only 4 per cent said they definitely would

[21yearsoutofrsa]

Me thinks the numbers are a bit overstated.

WA has a population of 2.2 million, about 50% are employed (that's what the total for Australiais). So that's 1.1 workers. A 150 000 increase in jobs is 15%!!!!!!!!!!

A little too high in my humble opinion, but if they can do it good for them and go for it.

[Emille]

thanks for that ottg - its good to see the future looks up

[Bullebak]

They have the new Gas Plant called the Gorgon Project, which eventually require 70 000+ people. Government is looking to hasten application for this project.

[ottg]

And now for the fine print:

"A study by the National Institute of Labour Studies shows that many of the jobs to be created on mining projects until 2020 will not require specialist skills.

..............About 38,000 new jobs will open up for unskilled and semi-skilled workers"

Mostly unskilled

[4Coetzees]

And now for the fine print:

"A study by the National Institute of Labour Studies shows that many of the jobs to be created on mining projects until 2020 will not require specialist skills.

..............About 38,000 new jobs will open up for unskilled and semi-skilled workers"

Mostly unskilled

I can clean and cook and bake!!!!!

I have lots more to offer but will gladly accept any offer!

Please pick me!