Jump to content

The future of "whites" in South Africa


Recommended Posts

This is a piece that I have received via email today. I do not know who the writer is, it seems to be some professor at some university. I have not verified any of his numbers. I am not trying to use this as a piece of propaganda or to scare "white" people in South Africa out of South Africa. In any case I hate using words like "whites" as my personal world view, based on my beliefs, faith, scripture and scientific background in biochemistry, is one that rejects this made-up notion of different "races". 




I do think these numbers are more or less accurate and the logical conclusion from the empirical data seems pretty sound to me. Maybe if someone reading through these forums is still undecided about leaving south africa, this could maybe paint a picture of how a future in south africa could look for them and their children.


Sorry it is in afrikaans, I do not have an english version. The piece follows below.


Die Rapport-verslaggewer Elaine Swanepoel het my verlede week oor die toekoms van wit mense in die land gebel en ek het vir haar gesê Suid-Afrika se wit mense sal teen die middel van hierdie eeu bes moontlik uit die bevolking verdwyn het.

Ek was baie jare gelede deel van ’n span wat op die toekoms van die Suid-Afrikaanse bevolking ingegaan het. Omdat daar ’n aantal huidige en historiese vrae oor die akkuraatheid van Suid-Afrika se bevolkingsyfers is, het ons noukeurig na die ouderdomstruktuur van die bevolking, en hoeveel mense in elke ouderdomsgroep aangeteken is, gekyk.

Die interessantste bevinding was dat daar byvoorbeeld meer wit mense van die ouderdom 50 tot 59 was as mense van die ouderdom 20 tot 29. Oor die hele ouderdomsgroep van 20 tot 40 was daar bewys van wit mense wat die land verlaat het, en ons het dié getal op etlike honderdduisende geskat.


Ons het ook gesien dat hulle die land ná 1994 verlaat het. Ons het dit geweet omdat hul ouers nog in die data was, maar hulle sou te jonk wees om die land voor 1994 sonder hul ouers te kon verlaat.

’n Derde ding wat ons waargeneem het, was dat daar ’n skerp afname in die getal wit kinders was wat in die land gebore word. Dit was nie net die afname wat ’n mens sou verwag van ’n al voorspoediger middelklas wat minder kinders kry nie. Toe ek verlede week na die data gekyk het, het ek gesien dat die getal wit kinders wat in Suid-Afrika gebore word die afgelope 20 jaar reeds aan die daal was. Die afname in die getal witkinders wat gebore word, weerspieël op sy beurt weer die afname in die getal wit mense van ouderdom 20 tot 40.

Die feit dat baie jong wit mense buite die land kinders kry, suggereer dat hulle Suid-Afrika permanent verlaat het. Dit is onwaarskynlik dat jy na Suid-Afrika sal terugkeer nadat kinders vir jou gebore is.

Die feit dat baie jong wit mense buite die land kinders kry, suggereer dat hulle Suid-Afrika permanent verlaat het.

Ons het toe voorspel dat Suid-Afrika se wit bevolking al ouer sou word en mettertyd tot byna niks sou verminder. Ek het verlede week weerna die syfers gekyk en beraam dat 40% van die huidige wit bevolking in die volgende drie dekades weens ouderdom of siekte kan sterf. Hierbenewens sal dit, namate wêreldwye ekonomiese toestande verbeter, weer vir jong wit mense makliker word om lewens in die buiteland te lei – veral as die regering volhou met sy dreigemente teen eiendomsregte en die afdwinging van rassekwotas in die sakesektor en die werkplek. Geboortesyfers van wit mense is te laag om te vergoed vir dié mense wat sal sterf of emigreer. Die slotsom is dat ons ’n aansienlike vermindering in die wit bevolking kan sien.

Terwyl die wit bevolking sal afneem, sal die breër Suid-Afrikaanse bevolking waarskynlik steeds toeneem. Daar was in 1994 ’n beraamde 39 miljoen mense in die land en dié syfer het met meer as 40% (terwyl ons nie daarop kan staatmaak dat die getalle van die bevolkingstoename heeltemal akkuraat sal wees nie) toegeneem tot 56 miljoen vandag. MIV-vigs het wel bevolkingsgroei vertraag, maar die bevolking is nietemin vandag 10 miljoen mense meer as wat dit ’n dekade gelede was.

Wit mense maak op die oomblik ’n beraamde 8% van die totale bevolking uit. Wanneer voortgesette wit veroudering en toenemende vlakke van emigrasie in aanmerking geneem word, kan dié persentasie teen 2040 tot tussen 1% en 3% daal. Die implikasies vir die ekonomie en beleide van SEB en grondhervorming sal ingrypend wees.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the English translation. If I was reading this and still staying in the not so sunny SA, I would definitely be taking any necessary steps to secure my future anywhere but in SA. As horrible as it sounds, this is something that all white people knew was going to happen. All it takes is to look north at some of the other 'democratic' success stories in the rest of Africa.


The report reporter Elaine Swanepoel called me last week about the future of white people in this country and I will tell her that South Africa's whites disappeared probably from the population by the middle of this century. I was many years ago part of a team that went on the future of the South African population. Because a number of current and historical questions about the accuracy of South Africa's population figures, we carefully check the age structure of the population, and how many people are logged in each age group watched. The most interesting finding was that eating more white people aged 50 to 59 were as people aged 20 to 29. Over the entire age group of 20 to 40, there was evidence of white people who have left the country, and we have this number estimated at several hundred thousand.   We also saw that they had left the country after 1994. We knew this because their parents were still in the data, but they would be too young to have left the country in 1994 without their parents. A third thing we noticed was that there was a sharp decline in the number of white children who are born in the country. It was not just the decline that one would expect from an ever more prosperous middle class who do not have fewer children. When I looked at the data last week, I saw that the number of white children in South Africa are born in the past 20 years already that was declining. The decline in the number witkinders being born, reflecting in turn the decline in the number of white people from age 20 to 40. The fact that many young people get white outside the country kids, suggesting that they have permanently left South Africa. It is unlikely that you will return to South Africa after children are born to you. The fact that many young people get white outside the country kids, suggesting that they have permanently left South Africa. We then predicted that South Africa's white population growing older would be and would eventually reduced to almost nothing. I looked weerna the figures last week estimated that 40% of the white community in the next three decades because of age or illness can die. In addition, it will, as improving global economic conditions, weather easier for young white people to lead lives abroad - especially if the government persists with its threats to property rights and the enforcement of racial quotas in business and the workplace. Birth rates of whites are too low to compensate for those people who will die or emigrate. The bottom line is that we can see a significant reduction in the white population. While the white population will decline, the wider will South African population probably still increasing. It was in 1994 an estimated 39 million people in the country and this figure has increased by more than 40% (as we can not rely solely on the numbers of the population increase will completely be accurate) increased to 56 million today. HIV-AIDS have slowed population growth, but the population is nevertheless 10 million people today over what it was a decade ago. White people make at the moment an estimated 8% of the total population. When continuing white aging and increasing levels of emigration is taken into account, this percentage could drop by 2040 to between 1% and 3%. The implications for the economy and policies of BEE and land reform will be far-reaching.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Karools said:

In any case I hate using words like "whites" as my personal world view, based on my beliefs, faith, scripture and scientific background in biochemistry, is one that rejects this made-up notion of different "races". 

Unfortunately it doesn't matter where you are but this race classification exists in so many places, just under different guises. I've had many arguments with officials in the UK and some here with regards to being asked what population group I belong to and me refusing to answer. It almost seems like the more we try to eradicate racism the worse we make it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I reckon those assessments would be pretty much on the money. Accurate.


White people all around the world are not replacing themselves and this is going to have an enormous impact on the world and its stability later on this century.


When I was born in the early 1950s, whites made up over 30% of the world's population. The world had 2.5 billion people then, so over 30% means there would have been more than 750 million white people throughout the world.


Nowadays, the world has 7.5 billion people. . . . . . . three times as many!


However, since whites have not been replacing themselves for the past 40 to 50 years, there won't be over 750 million whites, or 10% of the world's population but more like 600 million or 8% instead, since whites are in decline worldwide.


It's ironic that the inventions we take for granted  . . . . . televisions, ATMs, computers, cell phones, motor cars, trucks, railways, aeroplanes, bitumen roads, modern medicines, vaccinations, radios, stereo systems . . . the list is in its thousands . . . . have all been invented by white people.


White people have flown to the moon, and reached for the stars with the knowledge that they have engineered and pioneered.


The very medicines that are allowing 90% of children to live through to adulthood instead of most of them dying of starvation and disease is largely because of the pioneering  and development of modern medicines. The Third World owes its population increase overwhelmingly to white people.


By mid 21st Century, in just over 30 years, whites will only make up about 6% of the world's population and the order which we see in the world today will disintegrate and a new world order made up of other people will predominate.


Let's hope the new leaders of the world will do things of the equal to abolishing slavery and introducing democracy for the man and woman in the street, let alone taking Mankind to the stars and back.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think whites will leave South Africa entirely.. its going to be more like Zimbabwe or other African countries. Zimbabwean farmers have been transacting in USD for decades. They know that any money they give to the government is "lost" money... the government will only spend a fraction of it on their community. So, instead of declaring all your taxes, you spend the money on home schooling your kids or sending them to private schools. You run a private clinic for your workers, etc.. Anything to not rely on the government.


History has shown in Africa that once the locals think the whites are "too wealthy" then it becomes a difficult suitation. There were many farmers who left Zimbabwe for neighbouring countries when Bob's thugs kicked them off their land.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

I also read this article and believe that proper research was done before writing the article.

The sad part is that as much as a person doesn't want to talk about race, everything is about race.

We are now busy with our emigration process to Brisbane/ Gold Coast City.

This time we know we will be successful!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Create New...