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Tntaglia

Who else is waiting for visa approval?

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TetchyWombat

@RYLC, do you have information on what calculation they use to arrive at processing times from the "total number of applicants in that class"?

 

My interpretation of:

Quote

Last updated: 16 February 2018 (for month ending 31 January 2018)

 

...is that they're calculating the 75th and 90th percentiles based on grants within a reporting period, ending on that date. To test this I scraped all the SC189 grants on myimmitracker for January, and came up with this:

 

Of 115 grants (which is apparently roughly a 10% sample), 75% took 5 months or less from lodgement, and 90% of them took 10 months or less. There is a big peak (which covers 50% of January's grants) around 3 months (direct grants), then a steep drop off as the easy/simple cases are handled - then the long tail from month 5 through 10 for those that fall through the cracks (hopefully for good reasons - like problems with documents?):

 

5a866b9f27b1a_chart(4).png.7df0cdbf32916a4a0f32609348f74144.png

 

They might be looking at grants going back more than one month, which might explain why their 90% figure doesn't match mine, but what I have not seen is an obvious slow-down in general processing for recent applications (so if my theory is right, the 75% figure couldn't have just gone from 5 to 9 months in the space of one month).

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TetchyWombat

Here is some more obsessive analysis of myimmitracker grant data (hey, it is better than logging into immiaccount twice a day ;)). This shows grant date vs lodgement date, so the bar graph I posted earlier is basically a vertical slice through this graph adding up all the dots from 1-Jan to 31-Jan. This "top down" view shows the direct grants a the top, followed by the easy cases, followed by the few old cases handled every week. Horizontal gaps are weekends, and the Christmas break is quite visible.

 

Of particular interest might be the upward slant of these different "layers" of cases (to answer the question: how fast is SC189 processing going right now). My own case is not a direct grant, so I did a different graph of CO contact date vs Grant date (over the same data set, so same time period), and I determined that the approximate slope for best-case processing at the moment is about 19 days between CO contact for every 30 days between grants.

 

5a867065c311b_chart(5).png.2b688651a4c5dd29c7f5e565e9238f70.png

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iambrettstar
2 hours ago, TetchyWombat said:

the approximate slope for best-case processing at the moment is about 19 days between CO contact for every 30 days between grants.

 

Love the analysis :) can you explain this bit for me please, I don't quite grasp it?

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TamTam

Unfortunately child visas don't get logged on immitracker so I cannot use that to give me an idea of when I will receive my son's visa.

 

  • Visa submitted 30 June 2017
  • Medical requested 24 Jan 2018
  • Medical submitted directly to DIBP via emedical client on 01 February 2018.
  • Medical was fine, I presume no issues as it took all of 10 minutes and no issues are showing on the emedical client.
  • Is it true the all child medicals are referred to MOC even if they are clear.

 

What's the likelihood of being asked for more information??

 

I am literally going grey from this waiting.

Edited by TamTam

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Sakuya

Hi All,

 

Our 489 visas were granted on the 30th of January, here is our timeline...

So from our Visa submission date until the Visa grant we waited 6 months, 13 days. 

 

EOI Submitted
4 July 2017
South Australia invitation to apply for Visa
17 July 2017
Visa application submitted
17 July 2017
Health Checks submitted
25 August 2017
PCC submitted
11 August 2017
CO 1st contact
2 August 2017
CO 2nd contact (New PCC requested)
29 September 2017
2nd PCC submitted
9 October 2017
Visa Grant Letter
30 January 2018

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laurie26

We lodged early January. On Monday we will be in week 6. Hopefully we will hear something in March if they are busy with December visas. Thank you @TetchyWombat for the graphs and information :-)

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TamTam

The stress of waiting - and worrying - it's really getting me down...

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AdriaanSanta

@TetchyWombat I love your analysis. Very interesting. When we lodged in June last year the times were 4 to 7 months. It peaked at 11 to 14 months at some point. My guess is, the times are just a pacification device. Anyways, since you love analysis, do a comparison between the applications processed by the Adelaide office vs. the Brisbane office. That should be interesting.

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TetchyWombat
On 16/02/2018 at 2:22 PM, AdriaanSanta said:

@TetchyWombat I love your analysis. Very interesting. When we lodged in June last year the times were 4 to 7 months. It peaked at 11 to 14 months at some point. My guess is, the times are just a pacification device. Anyways, since you love analysis, do a comparison between the applications processed by the Adelaide office vs. the Brisbane office. That should be interesting.

 

@AdriaanSanta: In the period Dec through Feb Myimmitracker only had SC189 14 grants listed out of Brisbane. Min=6m, Max=2yr, Ave=1yr. By comparison, there are 195 Adelade grants listed during that period, and 38 without the office indicated.

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Tntaglia
On 2/16/2018 at 10:47 AM, iambrettstar said:

Love the analysis :) can you explain this bit for me please, I don't quite grasp it?

If I understand the analysis correctly (and @TetchyWombat correct me please if I'm wrong), basically it means they are processing faster than people are lodging. If they were processing at exactly the pace that people lodge their visas, there would be 30 days between CO contacts for every 30 days between lodging. Person A lodges 1 January and gets CO contact 60 days later, and person B lodges 31 January and gets contact 60 days later, or 30 days later than person A received CO contact - that's if the speeds are equal. The analysis that @TetchyWombat did shows Person B gets CO contact 19 days after person A. They've gone through 30 days of visa lodging in 19 days.

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iambrettstar
28 minutes ago, Tntaglia said:

If I understand the analysis correctly (and @TetchyWombat correct me please if I'm wrong), basically it means they are processing faster than people are lodging. If they were processing at exactly the pace that people lodge their visas, there would be 30 days between CO contacts for every 30 days between lodging. Person A lodges 1 January and gets CO contact 60 days later, and person B lodges 31 January and gets contact 60 days later, or 30 days later than person A received CO contact - that's if the speeds are equal. The analysis that @TetchyWombat did shows Person B gets CO contact 19 days after person A. They've gone through 30 days of visa lodging in 19 days.

Ah...thanks!

 

So that 19 days is saying that case-officers are processing "best-case" applications faster than they're being lodged (direct grants etc.)....I'm guessing the timing is different for non-best-case-cases.

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Tntaglia

That's how I understand it yes - or, to look at it another way, case officers are quick to make first contact, but after that who knows what will happen.

 

To give another view though: for 457 visa applications, in 3 weeks from 24 Jan to 14 Feb, they only moved from processing applications lodged 29 September to 5 October (1 week of lodgements processed in 3 weeks). So that's slooooow going. 

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miles

Hi, we just had ours issued on Friday. Exact dates in my signature. Although medicals were done in September, there was a medical issue that needed to be looked at which delayed us getting cleared. After that, it went pretty quickly. Visa was granted in the same week that we gave the police clearance. 

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Tntaglia
28 minutes ago, miles said:

Hi, we just had ours issued on Friday. Exact dates in my signature. Although medicals were done in September, there was a medical issue that needed to be looked at which delayed us getting cleared. After that, it went pretty quickly. Visa was granted in the same week that we gave the police clearance. 

Congratulations! When did you lodge the visa? Sorry, I can't figure it out from your signature, it just says when you submitted EOI. I'd like to update the table with your details if you don't mind.

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miles
1 hour ago, Tntaglia said:

Congratulations! When did you lodge the visa? Sorry, I can't figure it out from your signature, it just says when you submitted EOI. I'd like to update the table with your details if you don't mind.

Thanks :)

 

Looks like missed that piece of info in my sig. The date we lodged was 23/08/2017

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Tntaglia

 

Visa

Visa invite

Visa lodged

CO contact

CO request

Days to CO contact

Grant

Tntaglia

190 NSW

457 

 17/01

 19/1/18

30/11/17

 

12/02

 

More info on nomination

 

 

renebo

190 VIC

28/11

4/12/17

 Direct Grant

 Direct Grant

 73

 15/02/18

anusha

489

22/11

2/1/18

 

 

 

 

Ta2Bryan

189/190

8/11

 21/12

 

 

 

 

laurie26

190

13/11

 4/1/18

 

 

 

 

March2

190 TAS

 24/01

 30/1/18

 

 

 

 

TamTam

101 Child

 NA

30/06/17 

 24/01/18

Medical 

 207

 

 JayAySon

190 NSW 

 12/02

 14/02/18

 

 

 

 

 iambrettstar

189 

23/08/17 

14/10/17

  6/12/17 

Assessment commence email (no other request)

 53

 

 miles

 189

 

23/08/17 

 

 

 

 16/02/18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Lidan

Hi everyone

 

Im fairly new to this group.  We are also waiting for our grant.  Lodged SC190 NSW on the 28th of December.  Hoping to have it by mid March if Immi is showing that they are currently looking at dates till 10 Dec for Direct Grants.  We have already submitted all documents too

 

Fingers crossed for everyone else waiting.

 

 

Visa

Visa invite

Visa lodged

CO contact

CO request

Days to CO contact

Grant

Tntaglia

190 NSW

457 

 17/01

 19/1/18

30/11/17

 

12/02

 

More info on nomination

 

 

renebo

190 VIC

28/11

4/12/17

 Direct Grant

 Direct Grant

 73

 15/02/18

anusha

489

22/11

2/1/18

 

 

 

 

Ta2Bryan

189/190

8/11

 21/12

 

 

 

 

laurie26

190

13/11

 4/1/18

 

 

 

 

March2

190 TAS

 24/01

 30/1/18

 

 

 

 

TamTam

101 Child

 NA

30/06/17 

 24/01/18

Medical 

 207

 

 JayAySon

190 NSW 

 12/02

 14/02/18

 

 

 

 

 iambrettstar

189 

23/08/17 

14/10/17

  6/12/17 

Assessment commence email (no other request)

 53

 

 miles

 189

 

23/08/17 

 

 

 

 16/02/18

 Lidan

 190 NSW

19/12/2018 

 28/12/2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Tntaglia

Welcome @Lidan! You should be one of the next ones to hear, holding thumbs.

 

I added @Piet1234 and @RenVilo to the table, hope you guys don't mind, you added your details in @Lidan's question about visas lodged in December.

 

 

Visa

Visa invite

Visa lodged

CO contact

CO request

Days to CO contact

Grant

Tntaglia

190 NSW

 17/01

 19/1/18

 

 

 

 

Tntaglia

457 

 

30/11/17

12/02

More info on nomination

75

 

renebo

190 VIC

28/11

4/12/17

 Direct Grant

 Direct Grant

 73

 15/02/18

anusha

489

22/11

2/1/18

 

 

 

 

Ta2Bryan

189/190

8/11

 21/12

 

 

 

 

laurie26

190

13/11

 4/1/18

 

 

 

 

March2

190 TAS

 24/01

 30/1/18

 

 

 

 

TamTam

101 Child

 NA

30/06/17 

 24/01/18

Medical 

 207

 

 JayAySon

190 NSW 

 12/02

 14/02/18

 

 

 

 

 iambrettstar

189 

23/08/17 

14/10/17

  6/12/17 

Assessment commence email 

 53

 

 miles

 189

 

23/08/17 

 

 

 

 16/02/18

 Lidan

 190 NSW

19/12/17

 28/12/17

 

 

 

 

Piet1234

189

 

6/12/17

 

 

 

 

RenVilo

190 VIC

6/12/17

9/12/17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Lidan

Thanks @Tntaglia.

 

I really hope so. Think this is the most difficult part of the process as everythingis now on hold.

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TamTam

@Tntaglia can you work your analytical magic to tell me how long from medical submission to visa grant ;) 

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Tntaglia
22 minutes ago, TamTam said:

@Tntaglia can you work your analytical magic to tell me how long from medical submission to visa grant ;) 

 

On 489 there is not a lot of data, but the spread goes from 10 days at the minimum and then steadily increases to more than 200 days. The majority is grouped around 90-120 days I would say, so probably 3-4 months. 

 

I've also tracked it for 189 since there is so much more data available. For 189 it looks like people who don't get a direct grant get their visa on average about 3 to 4 months after responding to the case officer. There are a couple of outliers who waited only a month after responding to the CO, but most are around 100-140 days from CO contact to grant (and that includes usually a week or two before they respond to the CO). So I would say you're probably looking at 80 to 120 days after finalising medicals. I must say having looked at this I understand why the average time period is so long if you don't get a direct grant, it looks like it takes just about as long from responding to the CO to getting the grant, as it does from lodging to direct grant. I have heard people theorize that you just go back into the queue when you respond to the CO and when you get to the top again they look at your response and right now I don't see anything that implies this is not true, for 189 at least. 

 

I've added @Nikes to the table below as well.

 

 

Visa

Visa invite

Visa lodged

CO contact

CO request

Days to CO contact

Grant

Tntaglia

190 NSW

 17/01

 19/1/18

 

 

 

 

Tntaglia

457 

 

30/11/17

12/02

More info on nomination

75

 

renebo

190 VIC

28/11

4/12/17

 Direct Grant

 Direct Grant

 73

 15/02/18

anusha

489

22/11

2/1/18

 

 

 

 

Ta2Bryan

189/190

8/11

 21/12

 

 

 

 

laurie26

190

13/11

 4/1/18

 

 

 

 

March2

190 TAS

 24/01

 30/1/18

 

 

 

 

TamTam

101 Child

 NA

30/06/17 

 24/01/18

Medical 

 207

 

 JayAySon

190 NSW 

 12/02

 14/02/18

 

 

 

 

 iambrettstar

189 

23/08/17 

14/10/17

  6/12/17 

Assessment commence email 

 53

 

 miles

 189

 

23/08/17 

 

 

 

 16/02/18

 Lidan

 190 NSW

19/12/17

 28/12/17

 

 

 

 

Piet1234

189

 

6/12/17

 

 

 

 

RenVilo

190 VIC

6/12/17

9/12/17

 

 

 

 

 Nikes

 489 TAS

 

 15/11/17

 15/1/18

Additional docs 

 61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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TamTam

Thanks @Tntaglia for that helpful post. That's pretty horrible for me as it took 207 days for the CO to make initial contact.

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Tntaglia
2 hours ago, TamTam said:

Thanks @Tntaglia for that helpful post. That's pretty horrible for me as it took 207 days for the CO to make initial contact.

I really really hope you'll be on the quick end of the spectrum for a response from here on out.

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Tntaglia

Happy dance this side - 457 visa approved this morning! Now panic mode sets in, since we want to move as quickly as possible, but SO SO SO relieved to be out of limbo! 

Still waiting for PR obviously but I hope that will be done shortly after we get to Australia. 

Now to use the spurt of nervous energy to get stuff done!

 

Username

Visa

Visa invite

Visa lodged

CO contact

CO request

Days to CO contact

Grant

Tntaglia

190 NSW

 17/01

 19/1/18

 

 

 

 

Tntaglia

457 

 

30/11/17

12/02

More info on nomination

75

 21/02/18

renebo

190 VIC

28/11

4/12/17

 Direct Grant

 Direct Grant

 73

 15/02/18

anusha

489

22/11

2/1/18

 

 

 

 

Ta2Bryan

189/190

8/11

 21/12

 

 

 

 

laurie26

190

13/11

 4/1/18

 

 

 

 

March2

190 TAS

 24/01

 30/1/18

 

 

 

 

TamTam

101 Child

 NA

30/06/17 

 24/01/18

Medical 

 207

 

 JayAySon

190 NSW 

 12/02

 14/02/18

 

 

 

 

 iambrettstar

189 

23/08/17 

14/10/17

  6/12/17 

Assessment commence email 

 53

 

 miles

 189

 

23/08/17 

 

 

 

 16/02/18

 Lidan

 190 NSW

19/12/17

 28/12/17

 

 

 

 

Piet1234

189

 

6/12/17

 

 

 

 

RenVilo

190 VIC

6/12/17

9/12/17

 

 

 

 

 Nikes

 489 TAS

 

 15/11/17

 15/1/18

Additional docs 

 61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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laurie26

@Tntaglia YAH!!! That's awesome news!!! What a great way to start the day :-) 

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