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Comparing serious crime stats in RSA, Iraq, OZ


ottg

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This topic has been debated perhaps too many times but I found this Global Study on Homicide 2013 report.

Homicide rate per 100,000 people in 2013 (approximate)

South Africa 31 (a decline since 2004 from 40)

Iraq 8

Afghanistan 7.5

South Sudan 22

Australia 0.05

http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/GSH2013/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf

While an improvement, still a long way to go for RSA but very shocking!

Just realised how lucky I am not being directly affected by serious crime in the past.

Thus Australia is still the lucky country for me due to this single fact.

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Does the Iraq figure include those who die from bombs, terrorism, war etc or are those kind of deaths not classified as "Homicide". My point is that a figure of "8" does not immediately imply Iraq is safer than South Africa.

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You have a valid point. My first reaction was that surely there must be more safer areas in Iraq than others.

The above doc Page 17 - "Iraq, which had an estimated homicide rate of 8.0 per 100,000 population in 2012, has been experiencing a surge in conflict-related violence since early 2013, with most of the resulting deaths being of civilians".

This doc http://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-crisis-iraq page 27 shows that since April 2012 an average of 1000 death per month with an escalation since June 2014 to 2500 death in Iraq.

Is it safer than SA....definitely not...war zones can never be safe. But the figures for SA is not encouraging either and perhaps more distributed across the country.

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Disclaimer (before it turns into a bung fight). Crime at all levels in SA is unacceptable, it's a HUGE issue and almost certainly the single biggest reason why we sit in Australia today. However.......

Ottg, the stats do not lie and crime levels in SA are indefensible. But we need to read them in context. The reason why you have manage to avoid falling victim of serious crime (like being murdered) is not lady luck, it's based on stats. I'm guessing that you do not fall into the profile of what makes up a typical murder victim in SA yet these figures (and rightfully so) are included in the overall murder stats for SA. Understanding these stats puts them into perspective.

Remember that although crime appears worse in Jhb, the murder rate is actually much higher in the Western Cape and here's why.

http://www.iol.co.za/news/crime-courts/profile-of-a-typical-cape-murder-victim-1.1390340#.VBOrcGPQomU

A typical murder victim in the Western Cape is most likely to have been stabbed, had alcohol beforehand and be a black African male aged between 18 to 35.

Murder victims are also killed mostly during the festive season and on weekends between midnight and 6am.

This has emerged from a report by the provincial Community Safety Department looking at murders from 2008 to 2011, using mortuary data to construct a profile of a murder victim and the circumstances under which they died.

Edited by Johnno
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Short answer though is as a general you are 620 times more lightly to be murdered in south africa than Australia, why on earth would there be people who still want to live there.......

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Short answer though is as a general you are 620 times more lightly to be murdered in south africa than Australia, why on earth would there be people who still want to live there.......

But the correct answer is that because not everyone living in SA is a 18-35yr old black male, pissed and hanging out in township shabeens between 12:00am and 6am :)

Edited by Johnno
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Fact is it's out of control. And the idiots running the show worry more about their Moët and range rovers than you and I.

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Footy + bogans = brawls. Haha, no surprises there. The players are mostly yobbos & so are their supporters.

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Jonno, i think you have been out of SA for too long,

My uncle was shot dead in his home, they shot my aunt while she tried to hide in the toilet, a friends father was shot through the face while in his garden, lost a piece of his face but survived it, and i have personally seen 2 people shot, one in a crime one by police.

I have never set foot in a township.

This is certainly not just a black or township problem, and it is also not a whites only problem, it affects everyone, if you live in RSA you have a massively higher chance of ending up dead than in AUS, i think i can handle a bit of hooning or the occasional news story about something going wrong in Aus, if it was south Africa it would be a family member and it wouldn't make the news as 17000 murders a year is too many to make the news

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Disclaimer (before it turns into a bung fight). Crime at all levels in SA is unacceptable, it's a HUGE issue and almost certainly the single biggest reason why we sit in Australia today. However.......

Ottg, the stats do not lie and crime levels in SA are indefensible. But we need to read them in context. The reason why you have manage to avoid falling victim of serious crime (like being murdered) is not lady luck, it's based on stats. I'm guessing that you do not fall into the profile of what makes up a typical murder victim in SA yet these figures (and rightfully so) are included in the overall murder stats for SA. Understanding these stats puts them into perspective.

Remember that although crime appears worse in Jhb, the murder rate is actually much higher in the Western Cape and here's why.

http://www.iol.co.za/news/crime-courts/profile-of-a-typical-cape-murder-victim-1.1390340#.VBOrcGPQomU

The article is actually related to the Western Cape and not South Africa as a whole.................

The study compared the Department of Health: Forensic Pathology Service
mortuary data to the murder statistics issued by the SAPS. It was concluded that there was little variance
between the two datasets suggesting that the Forensic Pathology data could be used to predict murder in
the Province. The overall analysis revealed that the profile of a murder victim in the Western Cape Province

is an African male, aged 18-35, stabbed to death in the early hours of weekends, mainly on a Sunday.

I have tried and been unable to find the actual study used in this article, and even the report compiled by the Department of Community Safety does not contain those datasets, nor does the website, only that sentence.

South African Police Statistics no longer report race of murder victims (since 2007) and that is why any article or site that tries to tell you how many blacks/whites have been murdered, is incorrect.

This is based on mortuary statistics.......which mortuaries? It doesn't say, was in all in the Western Cape, or only those in townships?

What is the proportion of black residents to white? 10/1.................20/1.........................50/1.

What are the socio-economic demographics, rates of unemployment, drug and alcohol use?

Your logic is severely flawed, i.e. "But the correct answer is that because not everyone living in SA is a 18-35yr old black male, pissed and hanging out in township shabeens between 12:00am and 6am :)"

By that logic, we would assume that white, non-drinkers, who don't venture outdoors between 12 midnight and 6am in the morning are never murdered.

Johnno, you are an intelligent man, making a statement without any facts, based on one province in South Africa and a lack of empirical data, and no sub-set to compare with.

It should be obvious that more black people are murdered than white,purely because of numbers, and socio-ecomomic factors.................allocation of resources, including crime prevention/police presence, must also play a role.

If I were to say to you that Australia is a very hot country, with little rain and high unemployment, high violent crime, in which 65% of cases involved alcohol, but base that opinion on data from Alice Springs and project it onto the rest of the country, you would laugh me off the forum.

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To respond to Johnno's generalisation that you should be ok in SA if you don't fall in the demographic he points to, that is not true. You may be more likely to be a victim of murder if you are youngish and black and hang out in shebeens but you are not safe if middle class (irrespective of race). The difficulty is that the more people are exposed to violence the more ok it becomes in their mind which then increases the chance of becoming an offender (look at Oscar P). Unfortunately too many of us know someone directly affected by violence in South Africa.

Yes, Australia has yobbos and other stupid idiots, but having been a victim of crime in Australia I can say that if the same incident (home invasion) had happened in South Africa chances are that the end result would not have been as easy to get over because the end result would have been far more likely to involve rape, assault or murder.

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I`d rather not make and comments. But this links into the discussion.


"In 2008/2009 18 148 people in South Africa were murdered. This amounts to 37,3 people per 100 000, or just under 50 per day.[21] The evidence we have examined indicates that the victims are disproportionately African and coloured working class people. Young men are also disproportionately represented in the murder statistics.


We examined Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) mortality data to determine the breakdown of murders by race. Our analysis is inconclusive but it indicates that victims are disproportionately Africans and coloureds."


extract from here...

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We lived in a gated community near Fourways in Gauteng with about 110 houses. In our last 18 months there 5 people were murdered. They were all Caucasian and aged between 38 and about 75 years old. Two were women and the other 3 were men and they were all murdered in their own homes. In the 9 years I lived there not a single black or African person was killed in our area. I mention this because someone here seems to be suggesting white people do not get murdered and especially not in their own homes.

This topic is about comparing serious crime in Australia with that in ZA. So here is a crime that was hardly reported when it happened but the details are so macabre and gruesome that I can't forget about it.

http://censorbugbear-reports.blogspot.com.au/2009/04/odendaalsrust-law-court-scene-of-angry.html

According to forensic evidence, the Lotter mother and daughter had died excruciatingly painful deaths: they were tortured by their murderers’ allegedly stabbing broken glass bottles into their vaginas. One of the women also had her breasts cut off while she was alive – and their blood was then used to paint anti-Afrikaner hate slogans on the walls of their homestead.

This is one of the worst I have heard of but there are many like that and things like this do not happen in Australia.

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Firstly i agree with the article that it affects all races, i also agree that it almost certainly does affect more poor and black people as there would be more opportunity for things to go wrong in a township than a suburb, it just makes sense.

From a newsworthiness perspective that is troubling, from a resident of a suburb perspective the additional risk of dying does not justify living in the country regardless of your race or situation, doesn't matter how nice your friends and house are if you dead, just because someone is worse off doesnt mean i want to live there.

As a side, Andrea is spot on, there is just no facts to back any of these articles up, here is a paragraph from the article, notice what lengths they go to to ensure that you understand they are making this stuff up (Bold is mine but it is word for word from the link):

"we present evidence suggesting that Myburgh and the advocates of the Huntley thesis are most likely wrong. We cannot definitively disprove it, because data on crime are incomplete and insufficiently categorised by race. Nevertheless, the available evidence, as far as we can determine, shows that although all races....."

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So what is quite interesting is they seem to indicate a percentage breakdown from back in time was about 4 % for white males for death by assault, I doubt that has changed dramatically. So if we say there was 17'000 murder in SA last year. That would indicate about 680 for white males. Australia murder rate was 254 with just under half the population of South Africa, so lets say we add 150 white females to that figure. The means there are 3.4 times more murders of white people in South Africa then against all of Australia murder, but if you start working the numbers it not really dramatically different.

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Sorry MikeJ, I do not agree with your statement, there have been some terrible murders in Australia, here is just one example..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Anita_Cobby

Albury was convicted of using a broken bottle to mutilate and murder

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2566303/Outback-thrill-killer-known-Australias-Hannibal-Lecter-confesses-14-unsolved-murders-prison.html

Edited by chzaau
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So what is quite interesting is they seem to indicate a percentage breakdown from back in time was about 4 % for white males for death by assault, I doubt that has changed dramatically. So if we say there was 17'000 murder in SA last year. That would indicate about 680 for white males. Australia murder rate was 254 with just under half the population of South Africa, so lets say we add 150 white females to that figure. The means there are 3.4 times more murders of white people in South Africa then against all of Australia murder, but if you start working the numbers it not really dramatically different.

Geez chzaau you must be joking your logic is embarrassing I am blushing for you.

Your white murders should be measured against the white population of about 4 million in SA not the total population of about 50 million. If you want to do it your way then you have to measure white murders against white population for a true or truer picture.

Doing it your way and using your numbers SA has a murder rate for whites of about 21 per 100,000 and Australia we know has a murder rate of less than 1 per 100,000. I don't agree with your figures anyway as you have just guessed them but even so using your numbers the murder rate in SA for whites is much higher than Australia.

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What`s true for me is not true for you, so our reality is different which affects how we interpret the statistics? And then some add emotion into that mix...


I read it as. The average South African have a higher probability of been murdered than the average Australian. Then in SA a black South African male between 18 and 35 years has the highest probability of getting murdered.

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chzaau, sorry but surely you cant believe those number you just posted?

Firstly i don't believe you can just use old numbers and expect them to be the same, things have changed dramatically in South Africa in the last 20 year im sure you will agree, i would expect it to be much higher, but even using your numbers:

There are approximately 4.5 mil white people in south africa

You are saying about 800 murders for 4.5mil vs 254 in auz for 22 million

So auz has 4.9 times the population and 0.32 the murder rate so you are approximately 15 times more lightly to be murdered in south africa even using number that im sure are significantly too low

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Perhaps im missing something but why are you and Jonno constantly trying to tell everyone how south africa is really not bad even though you get proved wrong time and time again?

Case and point, your article about the murder above, in reply to someones horror story from south africa you go and look up the worst auz story you can find, sure things happen in Auz but they happen like that every month in south africa vs once a decade in Auz, would you like me to go and get a list of horror stories from the last year in RSA and we compare that to the Auz list from the year?

The stats on the murder rate, comments about black and townships, distorting the figures to make the murder rate in RSA not look so bad, any negative comments about RSA get met by news stories about problems in Auz.....

I would love to understand why you keep trying to convince people that aus is terrible and south africa is really not that bad, i just dont get why you feel that way as an expat yourself?

Do you think that you are going to convince the people on the forums or do you just do it to stir?

Edited by Nev
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RSA for rugby union, Melbourne Storm & Auz for rugby league as south africa doesn't play that, and for AFL i support hawthorn, just a side note i had never seen a live match of anything in south Africa but have see somewhere around 8 or 9 matches here, great country right?

So now you answer my question......

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