It's not all doom and gloom

[AndreaL]

http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/economy/commsec-chief-economist-craig-james-said-construction-is-the-next-sector-set-to-boom/story-fnkjjoue-1226887149415?sv=8e37fc0acc545c56c730f31024fbc3c1

FORGET mining, the next boom industry in the Australian economy will be much closer to home.

That’s according to CommSec chief economist Craig James, who said construction will pick up the baton from mining to become the driving force behind Australia’s economy in the next few years.

He also busted the ‘myth’ that times are tough in Australia, as the economy has experienced 22 years of consecutive growth with inflation rates at 2.7 per cent.

Unemployment is at 5.8 per cent with companies holding a healthy amount of cash on the books.

“And it’s likely to be broader in context whereas mining is much more specific to certain parts of Australia...we are going to see a number of boats being lifted all at one time.”

But despite the slowdown it’s not all bad news. It could just be the end of days where people go to the Pilbara to “fill water bottles for workers and get paid $120,000 a year,” Mr James said.

“It’s by no means doom and gloom for mining services, it’s just different sorts of companies are going to get the benefit.”

[HadEnoughofJuju]

So it's off to trade school for me then.

[Mikej]

We are trying to build a commercial building in our small city in WA (population 37,000) and are struggling to get tradies to quote. Of the 11 electricians I called only one was willing to look at the plans. The rest said they had enough work. Two plumbers agreed to quote and one of them never got back to me after receiving plans. Roofing, painting, stud walls and chippies have all been very busy and I have struggled to get quotes.

The building industry here seems to be flying.

[AndreaL]

We are trying to build a commercial building in our small city in WA (population 37,000) and are struggling to get tradies to quote. Of the 11 electricians I called only one was willing to look at the plans. The rest said they had enough work. Two plumbers agreed to quote and one of them never got back to me after receiving plans. Roofing, painting, stud walls and chippies have all been very busy and I have struggled to get quotes.

The building industry here seems to be flying.

Too right MikeJ................way back in 2007 when we lived in Albany, electricians were like hens teeth, that is why Fletchers had to get 3 over on 457's from South Africa, plus us from Perth and trying to get one for domestic work was nigh impossible...........so not much has changed.

[Mikej]

Hi Andrea.

It had been quiet for a few years but things seem to have picked up again.

Albany must still be one of the more expensive places to live. We are so far from anywhere.

A cappuccino is my universal measure of cost and they vary here from $4 to $5.50.

What do they cost where you are?

[AndreaL]

Hi Andrea.

It had been quiet for a few years but things seem to have picked up again.

Albany must still be one of the more expensive places to live. We are so far from anywhere.

A cappuccino is my universal measure of cost and they vary here from $4 to $5.50.

What do they cost where you are?

LOL, Mike Albany is cheap compared to Moranbah and other mining towns, at least you have Coles, Woolies and IGA, here in Moranbah we have Coles and it is apparently the most expensive Coles in Australia.

The average coffee shop charges $5.50 for a coffee and they do this thing, which is basically a thick slab of bread with some cheese and other bits on and toast it for about $6

Our Maccas is more expensive than any other. You still have a little choice in Albany. We have 2 bottlestores that are about $3 to $5 more on a bottle of wine and about $5 to $10 on a slab of beer. OOh, I used to love shopping in Albany and having a Chinese on a Friday night and hubby would have fish and chips from that place just off the ring road, round from dominoes.

[Bob]

Housing construction has lagged behind in Australia for a number of years now, with the extra demand being placed by the number of migrants coming into Australia in particular . . . . over 250 000 a year!

It won't be too long before the Reserve Bank of Australia shifts its rate upwards . . . . maybe in another month or two, but expectations are already in place for this to happen. I'll be buying Euros later next month for a little trip across Europe I have in mind, so the longer I leave it before I buy them, the higher I expect the Aussie $$ to creep up higher against the Pound and the Euro.

Last week I got a message from the foreign exchange people stating that the Aussie $ is now trading at a 5 month high and is shifting slowly back up to parity once more with the American $. . . . . one Aussie dollar to one American dollar . . . like it was for a while a year or two back.

What happens to construction after the interest rates begin to climb with an increase in the central bank's lending rate is any man's guess, but it will put pressure on some people to finance their home loans later on in the year, I'd expect. If they are stretched to the limit in paying back the mortgage (bond) at 5%, it will be worse at 6% or higher.

If the central bank (Reserve Bank of Australia) sticks its rates up too high, too quickly it might chill off demand for housing and slow the whole construction industry in the short term.

One thing is for sure . . . . Australia needs more houses to put over the heads of the people living here, so whether it's now or later on that the builders put up new houses, it doesn't matter. It has to happen some time.

Edited April 17, 2014 by Bob

[chzaau]

What will the demand in the mining towns be as a lot of the mines begin to change from the build into the operate phase ?

[AndreaL]

Rationalisation and production, less contract labour, but the mines are pumping out record amounts of coal, (hubby's mine got mine of the year) and stockpiling.

There seem to have been more cutbacks or retrenchments at staff/managerial level and keeping production staff, it's not boom, but steaming along, waiting for China etc.Business as usual, but the bean counters have to justify everything. There are expansions at 2 local mines and a new Anglo mine opening, but apart from production staff, existing management from the original mine will also have to oversee the new one. At Anglo, many staff (non union employees) have had to reapply for their jobs.

Met coal has done a lot better than brown.

It is EBA time at hubby's mine and the new agreement looks pretty good.

For the second year in a row Anglo American's Metallurgical Coal business has taken out the Coal mine of the Year Award at the 10th annual Mining Prospect Awards, this time Moranbah North mine receiving the top honour for their dramatic transformation that has taken place over the past 20 months.

"Moranbah North is now achieving what many thought wasn't possible – week upon week of 100 longwall cutting hours and the best safety record we have ever seen," Jim said.

"We are currently sitting at eight weeks in a row of consecutive 100 hour plus weeks and we know we can continue to keep this up and reach great heights in the future.

"I couldn't be happier to accept this award and after a delivering record production in the first half of 2013, we are now on track to delivering our most productive and safe year in our 15 year history," Jim said.

According to Anglo American in early May 2013 the Moranbah North reached 125 cutting hours in one week to produce 245000 tonnes of hard coking coal, the best week of production ever experienced at the mine.

[Mikej]

LOL, Mike Albany is cheap compared to Moranbah and other mining towns, at least you have Coles, Woolies and IGA, here in Moranbah we have Coles and it is apparently the most expensive Coles in Australia.

The average coffee shop charges $5.50 for a coffee and they do this thing, which is basically a thick slab of bread with some cheese and other bits on and toast it for about $6

Our Maccas is more expensive than any other. You still have a little choice in Albany. We have 2 bottlestores that are about $3 to $5 more on a bottle of wine and about $5 to $10 on a slab of beer. OOh, I used to love shopping in Albany and having a Chinese on a Friday night and hubby would have fish and chips from that place just off the ring road, round from dominoes.

Ha ha so it is not so bad for us down here after all.

I think you are talking about Moby Dicks fish and chips, they are still going and still have a very good reputation. We also have a new Woolworths at Oyster Harbour (Bayonet Head). Albany is growing steadily, I don't know when you were last here but we have that entertainment centre (it is a theatre) on the foreshore at the bottom of York St and the harbour developement has been a big improvement.

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/biggest-great-white-shark-ever-tagged-in-australia-off-coast-of-wa-20140410-36eqx.html

Our big news at the moment is that a 5.3m white shark has been hanging around Middleton Beach for the last 2 weeks. It is the biggest ever white shark to have been tagged so they know exactly where it is. I am doing the harbour swim on Saturday, it is a 4km swim across the harbour and they are thinking about calling it off because of the shark. My theory is safety in numbers and as long as there is one swimmer slower than me I should be OK.

Edited April 17, 2014 by Mikej

[AndreaL]

Ha ha so it is not so bad for us down here after all.

I think you are talking about Moby Dicks fish and chips, they are still going and still have a very good reputation. We also have a new Woolworths at Oyster Harbour (Bayonet Head). Albany is growing steadily, I don't know when you were last here but we have that entertainment centre (it is a theatre) on the foreshore at the bottom of York St and the harbour developement has been a big improvement.

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/biggest-great-white-shark-ever-tagged-in-australia-off-coast-of-wa-20140410-36eqx.html

Our big news at the moment is that a 5.3m white shark has been hanging around Middleton Beach for the last 2 weeks. It is the biggest ever white shark to have been tagged so they know exactly where it is. I am doing the harbour swim on Saturday, it is a 4km swim across the harbour and they are thinking about calling it off because of the shark. My theory is safety in numbers and as long as there is one swimmer slower than me I should be OK.

I think that was it Moby Dick's , no the theatre is new, I used to live about one street up from the cinema in Orana.........

Get yourself into the middle of the pack and let that great white pick off those on the outside. How has whale season been this year? The harbour development is new too, I loved Albany but didn't like the weather, too cold and rainy for me...........

I think this picture is at Two peoples bay?