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The tumultuous Rand


moerbei

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Hey guys,

So lady luck wasn't on my side when it came to exchanging Rands for Dollars either. So frustrated with this situation I cannot even begin to describe it :boxing:

AUD = R10.20

I'm sitting with money I'd like to exchange but I can't decide what to do. Exchange now at this pathetic rate or stick it out? Or maybe exchange some money now and the rest later in the hope that the rate will improve? Any advice guys?

I'm leaving on the 1st of April and just want to say thank you South Africa for this awesome farewell gift. I'm truly greatful.

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Moerbei I share your frustration, and there are many of us who are unsure where it is going.

As this is such a relevant topic it will be great to hear from some of our financial gurus.

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I don't think there ever is a right time. If you exchange now, the rate will improve just after and if you wait the rate just gets worse. Foreign exchange always works in favour of the currency you're converting to. :P

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Wait till I go to ZA on holiday - the exchange rate will improve to R5 = $1 just as I'm about to exchange the money ..... ;)

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personally I would try hold out until / when / if it looks like the mining sector strikes are going to end. Rand usually gets worse when they start, and improves *slightly* when they end.

Disclaimer: I'm not a financial type person, I'm just giving 2c as to what I'd do in your shoes...

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Agreed OBD, we always manage to find the top of the spike, somehow :-(

I don't know what the elections will do to it - I wish I knew what advice to give.

A friend of mine is a currency trader and he says the Rand will depreciate at 10% per annum. Any more than that is due to the US. I don't know if he is right.

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In 2012, I faced the same question, thinking R8.40 for a dollar was "so high". Transfer it.

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Dang... I'm glad the money we left in a lump sump investment isn't part of our retirement plan here in Aus... even if it's growing nicely, the exchange rate will wipe out the returns by the time it matures...

-G

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We are sitting in the same stinky boat...

However, my personal opinion is to transfer it asap. With the upcoming elections, I honestly doubt if it will be getting any better.

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Just my uneducated economical view, but I think now is a pretty bad time to try and change Rands. I would wait for the election to be over (which I will do, as I also have money that needs to come over). Any economy holds it's breath before an election. The amount of times I heard Aussies say "wait until the elections are over" last year was ridiculous. And what has really changed after the elections??? Everything went on as before...

South Africa is no more special in this regard. The economy is holding it's breath because a lot of politicians are saying a lot of dumb things that will have absolutely no bearing on South Africa after the election. This is also the best time for the unhappy people to protest their hearts out as they know the ANC will try and woo them with anything and everything they ask. The amount of protests will die down after the elections and things will go on as before with the slow decline of the country (can't do much about that, unless the ANC gets voted out).

So, my opinion: wait until the election is over and move your money then.

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Wait till the elections are over, although lets face it the rand is always going to be on the down side, our economy is far to gone at this point to make any quick recoveries, on the other hand it is a cycle, just have to watch for the right time. unfortunately the ozzi has also steadily increased against the rand for the couple of years. so Once again wait until the air clears from elections.

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all I have to say to that is... Ja... this is why we are on this platform...

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Thanks for all the inputs.

I've decided to trade today. Too many people doing and saying stupid things at the moment.

Also I can't wait until after the elections. Elections will probably be in April and by then I'll be in Aus already and will be needing the funds.

Wish I could screw SARS with my tax to make up what I'm losing on forex, but being a salary earner I don't have any room for even trying that.

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I think it's better not to wait, myself. At least if it's done and dusted you know where you stand. We thought we got screwed over in 2006 when it was R5.60 or something...

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  • 1 month later...

As long as there is a difference in the inflation rate between the two countries, the gap will continue to get bigger and bigger....

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  • 2 months later...

I think it is now on the way downwards... the fundamentals just seem to indicate a blowout.

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SA holiday coming up. Selfishly: Yes Please!

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For what its worth, I spoke to a financial advisor here yesterday. They are still of the view that the Rand is undervalued by about R1.20/US$ - meaning that it should be at about R9,20. That means that the AUS$ should be at just under R9.00. We are entering silly season with the strikes in SA at the moment so even if the miners come back, the sugar guys are on strike and COSATU is calling for sympathy strikes. We are bracing ourselves for a NUMSA strike in our industry 1 July which will last a week at least, so the Rand will probably weaken some more in the short term.

WHEN the mining strike is over and WHEN the strike season is over and WHEN Mercedes starts exporting the new "C" Class, the Rand will strengthen. The problem is that no-one can say WHEN WHEN is!

I'm only planning on leaving in January, so I'm really hoping and praying that this will all be over by then. The other disgusting fact is that 22% of my pension and share payouts will be taken by SARS when I exit - that would be equivalent to more than a years worth of salary in Aus for my family of 6.

Whop, Whop, Nkandla style!

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It's never going to get better in the long term unless they have a change in government.

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So here come my guesses on the subject

Currently the country is seeing a shrinking of the economy, if this goes on for a bit longer they will call it a recession, the big issue is the platinum strike, but it looks like there is a metal industry strike on the cards as well, that will be more people than platinum but possibly less $$ in GDP, it will have a bigger knock on effect as it is more money out of the hands of consumers

Essentially the rand wont recover until the strikes are over, as well as it being business as usual, and preferably there is a quarter of positive growth in the economy, short term this is un-lightly, perhaps in a couple of months would be my guess, and only if more stuff doesn't go wrong

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